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Research oil and gas supply model and software implementation

Author: LuoWenLiang
Tutor: ChenWei
School: Southwest Petroleum University
Course: Applied Computer Technology
Keywords: Reserves and Production Forecast OGSM NEMS Oil and gas supply model Regression calculation Software Design
CLC: F426.22
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2010
Downloads: 65
Quote: 0
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Abstract

Oil and gas reserves and production forecasts are based on certain principles, standards and mathematical models, based on a country or a block of oil and gas resources for scientific forecasting trends, assessment methods. Its purpose is to find out the potential oil and gas resources for countries to develop energy strategies, provide the basis for economic and social development planning. In the conventional oil and gas reserves and production forecasts, our country is based on commonly used model is represented Weng \With the world energy situation and the increasing complexity of the world prediction method of continuous exploration and improvement, to states for energy supply model began to emerge in various countries, they have each established their own state-level large energy systems. These systems combine economic factors, the real impact of production activities, reserves and production changes introduced various factors, from energy supply capacity point of view prediction problem. For the above, this paper after a lot of research work, based on a multiple regression analysis, matrix computation, autoregressive econometric models, computer software design, petroleum engineering related concepts, theories and methods, reference to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) provides official documents, to establish a U.S. energy model NEMS (National Energy Module System) to predict oil and gas supply capacity model gas supply model OGSM (Oil And Gas Supply Module) basic understanding and study of which a representative sub-model - - Onshore oil and gas supply sub-module 48 states methods and principles, in order for domestic oil and gas reserves and production scholars predicted to bring new ideas. During the study, for the \-and large energy systems based on predictive models, and more than several predictive models for the functional analysis and comparison of findings based on large energy systems OGSM prediction model can not only influence factors and the introduction of better prediction accuracy is also higher. Next summarized OGSM by analyzing functional, hierarchical structure and its location in the NEMS in the OGSM the role of each sub-module to filter and focus compared choose a representative of the meaning of sub-modules in principle, structure and focus on solving method analysis. Solving method in the model analysis, regression analysis method for the model of economic data related to problems with autocorrelation, we use non-classical econometric model assumes Generalized Difference Method for elimination of autocorrelation, to solve the traditional OLS method (least squares) estimated failures. Final design and the development of appropriate software tools, and the use of EIA to obtain the relevant data as given to verify the correctness of the algorithm, the results show that the calculation method used in this paper is feasible.

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