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The Research of the Relationship between Fictitious Economy and Real Economy

Author: GuoChengWei
Tutor: WangJianHua
School: Shantou University
Course: Industrial Economics
Keywords: Virtual economy and real economy Cointegration EG two-step Pulse function and variance decomposition
CLC: F124;F224
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2010
Downloads: 149
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Abstract

The virtual economy is the virtual movement of capital as the core, independent of the real economy (the exchange of goods or services), the economic form of value itself does not exist. Virtual assets on a global scale continues to expand, the virtual economy is an increasingly important impact on the real economy, virtual economy is becoming a new model of economic activity, plays a significant role on the world economic operation. Virtual economy in the rapidly growing countries in the world, it also brings a variety of negative effects. Domestic virtual economic problems are in the ascendant, in contending stage. Departure from Marx's discussion of the virtual capital to explore the concept of the virtual economy, and learn from some domestic scholars on the definition of the concept of virtual economy, thus quantitative contrast to the current development of the global and China's virtual economy. Secondly, the use of monthly economic data, current industrial added value, total imports and exports to reflect the real economy instead of the commonly used GDP data; Shanghai and Shenzhen's total share capital and the introduction of three periods 1997-2000,2001-2004,2005-2009 , credit growth, stock volume, real estate and other indicators, with the Shanghai Composite Index together a comprehensive reflection of the virtual economy. EG two-step cointegration method Granger causality test, impulse function and variance decomposition method, a measure of the stock market as an example of China's virtual economy and real economic relations do. Finally, according to analysts pointed out that the problems of virtual economic development in China and put forward policy recommendations. The results of this study show that virtual economic development, but the proportion the virtual economic composition of the total economic operation still lower, not only behind the developed countries, compared to some developing countries there is a certain gap. January 1999 - 2000 December relevance of the real economy and the virtual economy of this time period is not significant. The development of the real economy and can not be explained by the virtual economy, virtual economy development also not fully reflect the trend of the real economy, independent movements between each other. In January 2001 April 2005 period, compared to the period before the real economy and virtual economy showed a closer interaction between virtual economy to the real economy on the whole maintained divergence pattern, but this departure is not a complete departure from the real economy and virtual economy, but only part of the departure from, and showed a trend of convergence. May 2005 - February 2009 period, the virtual economy and real economy show a good positive correlation between the two promote each other, positive interaction.

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