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Research on Macro-economic Evaluation and Early Warning Based on Fuzzy and Compositive Methodology

Author: MaoSongSen
Tutor: WangYuanYue
School: Ocean University of China
Course: National Economics
Keywords: Economic cycle Balanced economic development Economic evaluation and early warning Membership function Evaluation system
CLC: F123
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2010
Downloads: 122
Quote: 0
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Abstract


The economic construction in the past 30 years of reform and opening up, China has made tremendous achievements in recent years, GDP growth has remained rapid growth, China's macroeconomic existence of this or that problem. Broke out in 2007 in the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis triggered a global economic recession. Cause we had to think, to re-examine the current macro-economic development situation of stable economic development. Macroeconomic volatility is the norm, our only method is to explore the macroeconomic laws governing the operation to find the method of the macroeconomic evaluation and early warning of macroeconomic volatility evaluation, monitoring and warning, and thus provide a basis for countries to develop policies and measures to reduce the adverse effects of economic fluctuations economies. This article is holding this purpose of the macroeconomic evaluation and early warning related research. This paper is divided into six parts. The first part of the history and status quo of the the macroeconomic evaluation and early warning research combing. Research of macroeconomic evaluation and early warning is an important area of ??economic research, has a higher theoretical significance and practical value. The second part summarizes the research results at home and abroad on the economic cycle theory, and take advantage of the economic cycle theory for both domestic and foreign imbalances, China's economic fluctuations; while some of their own views on the theory of balanced economic development and insights. The third section briefly describes the method of the macroeconomic evaluation and warning readers accordingly can have a comprehensive knowledge and understanding of the indicator approach. The fourth section describes the basic idea of ??fuzzy math, detailing the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, and proposed the idea of ??how to apply fuzzy mathematics assessment and early warning of macroeconomic performance. The fifth part is the use of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, on the mutual relations on the basis of comprehensive analysis of macroeconomic regulation and control targets of various factors, according to economic growth, employment growth, price stability, balance of payments, fiscal balance, a five economic regulation The targets were selected indicators of the amount, and to determine the membership function of each indicator. Part VI to determine the weight of each index, the index evaluation system was constructed, the index system and the use of economic data confirmed that the evaluation of the economic situation and the index system is better able to play a role in early warning of future economic development. Research methods use the combination of theoretical analysis and empirical research, qualitative evaluation and quantitative research combined a variety of research methods. Specifically: (1) theoretical research methods. Comprehensive use of the theory of economic cycles in macroeconomics, balanced economic development theory, the theory of investment, consumption theory, the laws of the macroeconomic research to clarify the objectives of macroeconomic regulation and control factors, combined with the actual situation and the various factors analysis to determine the indicators to be chosen. (2) empirical research methods. Indicator data collection, the use of other means of charts, graphs, formulas, Analysis on the relationship between the indicators and economic objectives, and to use the law of the membership function in the fuzzy mathematics degree of membership of each indicator analysis. Evaluation system is established, with economic data evaluation system verification, confirmed the index system of economic evaluation and early warning function. (3) qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis of the combination. In the analysis of the process of economic goals, qualitative analysis of the relationship between the various indicators and economic objectives, and to collect data for quantitative description.

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CLC: > Economic > The world economic profiles,economic history,economic geography > China's economy > National economic plan and its management
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