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Study on the Relationship Between Stock Market and Economic Development in China

Author: YaoYao
Tutor: ShaoGuoHua
School: Jiangxi University of Finance
Course: National Economics
Keywords: stock market economic development empirical test
CLC: F124;F224
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2010
Downloads: 326
Quote: 1
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Abstract


With the economic development and reform, development and maturity of the stock market is particularly important, the stock market’s role in national economic development is also growing. Therefore,this study research the situation of stock market and economic growth from 1991 to 2009,the thesis adopts positive analysis method to study the relationship between stock market and economic growth.Based on this,we analyze the reason why the stock market has a weak correlation with the economic growth,and bring the relevant strategies.This thesis contains seven chapters.The first chapter is an introduction,describes the background、significance、the content、methods、the main points and innovation.The second chapter is literature on research development, analyzes different views of the domestic and foreign scholars on the relationship between economic growth and stock market,some scholars believe the stock market is still the barometer of the economy, but some think they have been out of touch.In chapter three,we elucidate the relationship between economic growth and stock market, divided into theoretical analysis and status analysis. The first is based on the perspective of virtual capital to consider the relationship, economic development is the basis of the stock market. The good performance of the economy will bring a healthy stock market, microeconomic foundation and macroeconomic fundamentals have a decisive role in the virtual economy. On the other hand, the stock market have reaction to economic development, this reaction is two-way, stock market can raise funds to provide liquidity, risk diversification, and promote economic development,but it has high risk, speculative and irrational. Then analyze the convexity of Pa Jialuo endogenous growth model, illustrate factors of stock market promote economic growth. Then through the wealth effect and the Tobin’s q theory, illustrate the transmission mechanism of stock market.Finally, analysis of the status of the relationship, we set up the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges in December 1990 and June 1991.This paper selects 1991-2009 GDP and gross domestic product datas on Shanghai and Shenzhen stock,we obtain results:the stock market and economic development are linked, but this does not mean that the two development cycles are synchronized, the total deviation and rate of development are deviation.Chapter four is Empirical Analysis. Selected and dealed with each quarter of GDP, market capitalization, stock turnover datas from 2000 to 2009, we obtain CAP、TUR and val,, then create VAR model、ADF、Johansen cointegration test、ECM and Granger causality test.The conclusion is that economic growth and the stock market have long-term relationship, stock market size and liquidity are In contrast with the economic, while economic development will also be the impact of TUR.But correlation is weak, causality is almost non-existent,these make stock market and economic growth are not synchronized,even divergence.In chapte five,we analyse the reasons of the weak relationship,such as the company’s system、quality efficiency、the lack of relevant laws and regulations and deficiencies in the system the stock market. So,we put forward material policy in chapter six,such as establishing modern enterprise system,perfecting corporate governance,establishing some laws and regulations,strengthening stock market mechanisms an so on.In the last chapter,we obtain the conclusion. There is some relationship between China’s stock market and economic growth, stock market size and liquidity are In contrast with the economic, while economic development will also be the impact of TUR.In addition, stock market size, liquidity and economic growth do not exist in the two-way causality,these illustrate stock market and economic development is not a long-term equilibrium relationship exists in the long run.

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CLC: > Economic > Economic planning and management > Economic calculation, economic and mathematical methods > Economic and mathematical methods
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