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Stochastic Load Flow Calculation for Power System Base on Point Estimate Method

Author: QuFuZuo
Tutor: CaiGuoWei
School: Tohoku Electric Power University
Course: Proceedings of the
Keywords: Random trend Point estimate method Stochastic dynamic trend Wind farm
CLC: TM744
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2011
Downloads: 353
Quote: 0
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Abstract


There are a lot of uncertainties , including the random fluctuations of the load , the generator output changes , equipment failure quit running , wind power and other new energy power generation output varies with climate change in the power system . Still use deterministic flow calculation method in the analysis of power system planning and operation conditions , many might happen statistics and calculations , to do so too computationally intensive and computation time is difficult to bear , but also difficult to reflect the overall health of the system . Randomized study can account uncertain factors a random trend analysis method is very necessary. This paper studies a random flow calculation method based on the point estimate method , and this method was introduced into the calculation of the power system including wind farm random trend , the establishment of a stochastic model of the generator , load and wind farms , through the random flow calculation the probability distribution of each node voltage and line flow , analysis and comparison of the the system node voltage and line flow before and after the wind farms ; calculated based on a point estimate method , taking into account the frequency fluctuations amount of random dynamic trend , comprehensive consideration of random perturbation of the system frequency disturbances occurred after the system according to the frequency changes automatically adjusts the generator and load more realistic simulation of the power system disturbance resulting state of the system random distribution of results will be more realistic and reasonable .

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CLC: > Industrial Technology > Electrotechnical > Transmission and distribution engineering, power network and power system > Power system simulation and calculation > The calculation of the power system
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