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A Study About the Validity of the Intermediate Target in China

Author: LiYi
Tutor: CuiGuangLian
School: Xinjiang University of Finance and Economics
Course: Finance
Keywords: Monetary policy Intermediate target Validity
CLC: F822.0
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2010
Downloads: 146
Quote: 0
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Abstract


Intermediate target of monetary policy is an important bridge to connect operation objectives with the ultimate goal of the realization of the ultimate goal , the selection of its effectiveness largely depends on the intermediate target . Therefore , the monetary authorities to correctly select the intermediate target , the protection of its effectiveness in the process of running , and will contribute greatly to the achievement of the ultimate goal of monetary policy . China in the mid - 1990s , according to the prevailing macroeconomic operation , the intermediate target of monetary policy by the credit scale transition to the money supply. 1995 , the People's Bank of China , try the money supply into the monetary policy intermediate target system , formally established in 1996, the money supply as the intermediate target of monetary policy . Has been running 10 years , the money supply as the intermediate target of monetary policy has achieved a certain effect , also exposed to a lot of problems . In view of this situation , the intermediary target , there is a dispute between the majority of our scholars about whether the money supply will remain fit to play . In this paper, based on a review of China 's monetary policy transmission mechanism and intermediary target development course , qualitative analysis of the problems that exist in the intermediary targeting money supply , econometric cointegration test and vector autoregressive (VAR) model target correlation. Pointed out that under the current economic system , due to the level of money supply statistics caliber controversial supply endogeneity reasons , resulting in the validity of the intermediate target has weakened . At the same time learn from the evolution of the intermediate target of Western developed countries , China's current economic situation and monetary policy system , demonstrated the feasibility establish interest rates as a monetary intermediate target .

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CLC: > Economic > Fiscal, monetary > Currency > China's currency > Principle of policy and its elaborate
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