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The Empirical Analysis on the Impact to Import and Export Trade Caused by Exchange Rate Movements in Our Country

Author: ZhangJingZuo
Tutor: ShiLiangPing
School: East China University of Science and Technology
Course: Applied Economics
Keywords: the change of RMB exchange rate the import and export trade the cointegration test
CLC: F752.6;F224
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2012
Downloads: 520
Quote: 1
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Since July 21th,2005, we have a new exchange rate of RMB mechanism named floating exchange rate system of management, which also means the exchange rate of RMB begins to be based on market supply and demand, and consults a basket of currencies. From then on, RMB exchange rate no longer one-sided pegged to the US dollar, but change to be pegged to a basket of currencies for reference, a more flexible RMB exchange rate mechanism has been formed. Since then, the RMB appreciation take a key step, and keep on the way of appreciation step by step, with a higher RMB exchange rate. While the exchange rate, as the most important regulated lever in the international trade, reflects the linkage between domestic price and foreign price, implies the relative price of goods and services in the international trade. So, it’s indubitable that the fluctuation of exchange rate will affect the country’s import and export trade situation. This paper firstly summarizes the domestic and foreign scholars related research results which focus on relationship between the exchange rate and international trade; secondly, according to the actual situation in China, describes the evolvement of RMB exchange rate system and characters of each stage, and analyzes the present situation of import and export trade in China; thirdly, using the relevant data from 1985 to 2010, take a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods to do the empirical analysis between the RMB exchange rate and the international trade, and draws the corresponding quantitative relations. Finally, based on the empirical results, and combined with the specific situation in China, puts forward some policy suggestions

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