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The Research of the Relationship between Our Economy’s Growth and the Price of Iron Ore

Author: LiuJiXiao
Tutor: CuiYuQuan
School: Shandong University
Course: Applied Mathematics
Keywords: Economic growth rate The price of iron ore Granger causality test Vector autoregressive model
CLC: F124;F426.31
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2011
Downloads: 57
Quote: 0
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Abstract


In recent years, the demand and the proportion of the import of of iron ore have been bigger and bigger with our economy’s development. But the price boom of iron ore brings the biggest adverse effect to the Chinese economy in the world. The steel is also the basic material of manufacturing industry. The iron ore’s cost occupies about 40% of the total cost of the steel and iron in our country. The price boom of iron ore affects every aspect of society, and it results in the PPI boom. Further more, the PPI boom results in the rise and the boom of CPI. At last, the manufacturing industry and the people of China suffer the aftermath. The iron ore price spears the weakness of the China’s economy.Therefore, this paper researches the relationship between the economic growth rate and the iron ore price through some econometric models and methods after drawing lessons from the research experience of similar problems at home and abroad. This article is divided into four parts. We review and analyze the present situation of the production and import of iron ore in the first part. We give the brief introduction of the mathematical methods and models that we apply in the second part. We have an empirical analysis on the related issues in the third part that is the most important in the paper. Firstly, we make GDP, the import and export and the price of iron ore as variables and analyze the co integration relationship of them. We set up error correction model, proceed Granger Causality test and come to the conclusion:the iron ore price’s variation has the significant influence on China’s economy. Secondly, we build the VAR model through the rate of the international iron ore price increase that is the variables. We proceed the H-P wave filtering analyses on the rate of international iron ore price increase and the GDP growth rate of China. We depart the trend component from time series. Through rushing the response function, we identify the dynamic reaction process, which occurs in the various strikes that the fluctuation of economic growth rate and the iron ore price increase rate face. We make the variance decomposition on the fluctuation of economic growth rate and the iron ore price increase rate. At last, we draw the corresponding conclusion and give the appropriate recommendations on policy.

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CLC: > Economic > Industrial economy > China Industrial Economy > Industrial sector economy
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