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High-tech products with high-tech the materialized or information features products rely on the production of high-tech research and development results, compared with the traditional products with high technical content, investment risks, the products high rate of return, as well as the life cycle is short. Diffusion process of high-tech products to the market, there is a high degree of market uncertainty, technological uncertainty and competitive uncertainties, differences in consumer buying behavior will be a significant impact on sales. Therefore, when the success of research and development of high-tech products, the accurate prediction of its future sales prospects have economic significance. , Commonly used in the field of marketing diffusion model to predict sales of high-tech products, in order to ensure the stability of the model parameter estimation, this method requires enough data points to estimate the parameters, and contains the biggest moment of product diffusion speed. The managers, however, the most valuable sales forecasts before the market is mature, at a time when the rate of diffusion of the products also did not reach the maximum, therefore, such a model is difficult to apply to the initial sales forecast of growth of high-tech products. In addition, in the study of the product diffusion, the traditional diffusion model, such as the Bass model only consider the influence of the mass media and oral communication of product proliferation, and did not consider the individual consumer buying behavior of the product diffusion from the micro-level. The high-tech industry, the main factors affecting the diffusion of the product not just focus on mass communication and interpersonal communication within the framework of network effect, consumers of rational expectations, and consumer heterogeneity will, in addition to interpersonal factors, affect the rate of diffusion of the new product. Therefore, predicting sales of high-tech products, from the micro level considering the main factors that affect the proliferation of high-tech products, more scientific and rational way to predict the market diffusion process of high-tech products. The paper through an extensive literature search and inspection work, the research results of the diffusion model of new product markets at home and abroad a systematic review, conducted in-depth research on the structure of the model and its parameters estimation method, and through the psychology Marketing and diffusion theory, crossover study, combined with the characteristics of high-tech products, qualitative analysis of the factors that affect sales of high-tech products in the market. Through the buying behavior of consumers in the high-tech market research, summed up the following five factors affecting consumer buying behavior, interpersonal communication, changes in the price of the new product, the network effect, consumers rational expectations and consumers heterogeneity and sales forecasting sales forecasting model based on utility theory, specifically for high-tech products on the basis of this study, in the light of the diffusion model and the introduction of utility theory. The choice of the papers in the field of the last two decades of high-tech consumer electronics industry, the most important innovative products CD player, DVD player and digital camera as a research object, through empirical research on their market sales data, new utility model built basic Bass model, and the proportional hazards model to compare. The results show that the new model in data fitting close to the traditional model capacity, in terms of product sales forecasting ability is much better than the basic Bass model, and the proportional hazards model. The model is convenient and reliable in predicting the growth of the early sales of high-tech products can be used to predict, can also be downward changes in diffusion speed final product growth forecast, which provide the basis for enterprises to develop a reasonable investment plan.
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