|
Project group risk environment is more complex than a single project . According to the project group the mechanism and nature of risk can be divided into independence risk and the associated risk into two categories. Wherein each independent risk spread in the various stages of sub- step, the probability of their occurrence and the amount of loss with spontaneous , random , do not affect each other ; the associated risks are different between them not only cross-cutting role in the various stages of the process of continuous transmission, diffusion , and even the formation of risk chain , resulting in the risk of superposition and amplification. Program risk management to study the response of independence risks and risks associated with sex were modeled. For the independence of the risk , namely to establish direct and indirect losses of the optimization model . Direct loss distribution and convergence can be added in the project group level means that a single integrated project risk management, and will not increase the level of direct loss , but can create the conditions for the law of large numbers , and enhance the robustness of the risk assessment , conservation management costs, economies of scale . Combined with their own risk tolerance, risk function using the definition of conditional expectation , conditional expectation to establish indirect loss model . Indirect losses and risk management expenses indirect loss level optimization model description , improve risk management in two ways : First, to improve project risk management level indirect losses , one at the macro-management of risks on income and reasonable position . For risks associated with , the use of system dynamics and discrete dynamics theory , from different angles reveals the relevance of risk transfer mechanism . Which , combined with discrete kinetic theory constructed correlation risk optimization model to get different risk management strategies and weigh the risk function function group for the various stages of the project risk management and control strategy ( risk management costs ) and the risk of loss amount ( risk of loss level ) weigh optimized. Combined with collaborative management , flexible management ideas , the introduction of risk buffering mechanism, establish the independence of the project group and the associated risk of a comprehensive risk management models , help to improve risk management in construction and intensive level of refinement .
|