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Based on net primary productivity of energy Footprint Model and Its Empirical Research

Author: FangZuo
Tutor: DongDeMing;ShenWanBin
School: Jilin University
Course: Environmental Science
Keywords: Ecological Footprint Energy footprint Net primary productivity Land use change Scenario simulation Jilin
CLC: X22
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2011
Downloads: 108
Quote: 1
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Abstract


Quantitative evaluation of the state of regional sustainable development of ecological economics has been the forefront of research and hot areas. Ecological footprint as a measure of the sustainable use of natural resources and the level of biophysical evaluation tools, once made they will have a positive response and academic attention, becoming the widest range of applications, the greatest potential for sustainable development of evaluation methods. At the same time, with the related research, ecological footprint theory some flaws and deficiencies also gradually becoming apparent. Among them, the energy footprint is one of the most controversial part of the question. Most empirical studies show that energy footprint has become the region constitute a major part of the ecological footprint and ecological deficits resulting primary cause. Visible, energy footprint method is reasonable or not only directly affects the ecological footprint of science and rationality, but also related to the sustainability of the area as a basis for evaluation of the accuracy and validity. Special studies conducted energy footprint has important theoretical and practical significance. Evaluation results for the energy footprint is too conservative and simplifying difficult to give a true picture of energy consumption on the ecological environment and other issues, at the conclusion, based on research advances, the system analyzes the traditional model assumptions against facts contradict the existence of the energy factor is difficult to weigh factors of land cover was incomplete, conflicting metrics such as defects, proposed considering various land through carbon sequestration contribution of net primary productivity characterization using carbon absorption capacity, combined with land use change dynamics calculation, the energy footprint implementation of specific land measures to improve the use of the finest type. By definition, parameters and calculation methods and other aspects of the traditional model is improved, constructed based on net primary productivity of energy footprint model. Improved model using an empirical analysis of Jilin Province, the results showed that: from 1994 to 2008, Jilin Province, land use structure changed significantly, farmland, forest land, construction land area has increased slightly, grassland area is significantly reduced; regional net primary productivity in before 10 a volatile, nearly 5 a gradual steady at 5.268 t/hm2 · a left and right; energy carbon emissions fluctuated downward trend, from 9107.527 × 104t fell 8675.138 × 104t; energy footprint volume increased significantly, from 573.449 × 104hm2 to 1419.534 × 104hm2; overall energy footprint per capita grew rapidly, from 0.228 hm2 to 0.524 hm2. Overall energy consumption on the environment further increase the pressure. Analysis of changes in the composition of per capita energy footprint, the results showed that: coal, crude oil, electricity is the main constituent components. In addition to fuel oil, natural gas and electricity, the other components have increased energy footprint. The rate of change, the most volatile kerosene, crude oil volatility smallest diesel fastest growing fastest decline in fuel oil. Energy footprint breakdown of the composition of the land, grassland provided energy footprint reduction 0.005 hm2, farmland, orchard, woodland, construction land, the waters were increased breakdown 0.089,0.002,0.192,0.005,0.013 hm2. Woodland, arable land, grassland energy footprint together accounted for 95.05% ~ 94.02%. Except from 1997 to 2002, the ecological effects of land use index greater than 1, and the increase over time, land use change does not help to curb energy footprint towards growth direction. With the traditional model calculation results are compared, the results showed that: the smaller the calculated results improved model for the traditional model 30.77% ~ 37.17%, mainly due to improved model preconditions parameter selection and calculation method has done a great adjusted. Two sets of results at the annual rate of change and there are some differences on the composition ratio, but the overall trend in the high consistency, indicating improved model calculation results are more reasonable and credible. Using complex analysis and decomposition analysis carried out on the energy footprint multivariate analysis, the results showed that: Economic growth is the driving force of growth in energy footprint, and its average annual increment effect was 113.720 × 104hm2; technological progress is energy footprint growth inhibition, its average annual reduction effect was -57.314 × 104hm2. Economic growth, the impact on the overall energy footprint of approximately 2 times the technological progress, despite the economic impact on the energy footprint is still great, but technological advances to improve energy efficiency has become a key factor. Multi-angle analysis of the GDP and land area change on energy footprint, the results showed that: ① GDP and energy footprint significantly correlated, and the approximate relationship was Logistic Curve. From 1994 to 2008, energy footprint intensity decreased from 0.612 hm2/104 0.221 hm2/104 million yuan, down more than the national average, increased efficiency of energy use; energy footprint elasticity volatility, most less than a year, energy footprint overall lack of flexibility to the GDP. ② land-use change and energy footprint close. From 1994 to 2008, energy footprint pressure from 0.306 to 0.759, more than the province's energy footprint actual land area of ​​3/4, further increasing environmental pressures. Correlation analysis shows that urban expansion and increased energy footprint grassland degradation is an important factor. Energy footprint prediction model was constructed to simulate the energy footprint next 15 a trend of Jilin Province, the results showed that: 2009 ~ 2023, in moderate and controllable, the basic control, risk control three kinds of scenarios, energy footprint of Jilin Province both will grow by 6.36%, 10.73%, 11.43%, Negative ecological effects of land use will emerge, as in addition to economic growth, increase energy footprint outside another major driving force. Proposal to increase efforts to protect the western grasslands to curb carbon absorption capacity of the land continued downward trend, while investments in technology, avoiding sharp rise in energy consumption, the energy footprint to achieve moderate and controllable growth. The main innovation is that carbon emissions and carbon sequestration from the combination of angles, constructed based on net primary productivity of the energy footprint model, the realization of the traditional model of methodological improvements; energy footprint will be assigned to specific types of land use on and under different scenarios simulated trends in energy footprint extends the energy footprint of the spatial and temporal scales. The results reflect the comprehensive energy consumption of carbon absorption capacity under the impact on the ecological environment, with strong authenticity, accuracy and regional characteristics, to avoid the traditional model is too conservative and simplify the evaluation of defects, on improving the energy consumption and sustainable evaluation of positive theoretical reference value.

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