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Wheat production evaluation of response and adaptation to climate change

Author: SuKunHui
Tutor: YanJunPing
School: Shaanxi Normal University
Course: Human geography
Keywords: Climate Change Degree of Adaption Degree of Impact Model Dividing Line Wheat Huaihe River Henan Province
CLC: S512.1
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2011
Downloads: 75
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Abstract

The average temperature of the earth surface was recorded up by 0.6±0.2℃during past nearly one hundred years. Climate change will affect ecological、environment and social economic systems greatly, what is more, the living environment will be impacted for different levels. Since agriculture is one of the most sensitive factors, it is very significant to study the impacts of climate change on agriculture industry and its adaptability. Wheat is one of the most output in China, added that Huaihe River, in Henan Province, is one of major wheat areas in China. This area was choosen to analyze the response and adaptation of agricultural production to climate change. Following that, it was proposed targeted adaptive measures in order to reduce the harm of climate change, which is kind of important to wheat supply safely in this region.It was used in 27 sites in Henan Province from 1954 to 2008 in this paper on the high monthly temperature、low monthly temperature、daily average temperature、the optimum temperature、monthly precipitation、runoff coefficient、sunshine hours、daily maximum temperature、daily minimum temperature、maximum relative humidity、minimum relative humidity、wind speed in 2m higher、the altitude of the stations and etc. This paper analyzed the impact of agriculture production process from climate change and the adaption, in order to supply objective facts of the response and adaptation of agricultural production to climate change.The conclusions are as followings:1、The boundary of climate change and the characters in the north and south in Henan Province:The north-south dividing line of climate in Henan Povince is not the mainstream of Huaihe River, but the zone of the east branch of Qinling and Shaying River,which is the largest tributary of Huaihe Vally. The features of climate change in recent years have shown the trend of warm and wet in the North-South region. The appearance of warm and wet in northern is stronger than the southern,which is different from features in Qinling that southern is stronger than the northern.2、The model of the degree of human impact on climate change:it was analyzed the time-series on temperature in the observations according to the ARMIA model from SAS system,following which, we can get the optimal model, and derive the degree of human impact.The degree of the development of industrialization and the rapid expansion of urban housing area is higher in the part of human impact; In the aspect of region it showed the symmetry characteristics of the north and south in the geographic boundaries of the Huaihe River.3、Structure on degree of adaption of wheat under Climate Change:DA has kept between 49% and 61% during the studied period, what is important is that the temperature DA has surged since 50s on the 20 century, especially abrupt climate change on 80s; moisture DA has changed with big width, showed "U" type trend,which is the lowest is 80s as the wheat can not adjust to the abrupt precipitation; Heat DA becomes high and reaches 70%,which shorten the cycle of wheat growth. On the space hand,the strong line of temperature DA has trend of moving northern and heat DA has become higher following dimension reduction.

Wheat production evaluation of response and adaptation to climate change

Abstract

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