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Research on the Impact of House Price Changes on Household Consumption in China

Author: ChangZuo
Tutor: ZhangYiShan
School: Jilin University
Course: Quantitative Economics
Keywords: Real estate prices Consumption VAR model
CLC: F293.3;F124.7
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2011
Downloads: 253
Quote: 0
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Abstract


China's current economic growth is faster, but did not achieve the same level of growth in consumer spending. Weak consumer demand has serious problem restricting China's economy further sustained and healthy development, and to highlight the growing problem in the process of China's economic development. The purpose of the current economic situation of our country, lower private consumption problem is the top priority for economic development. Therefore a detailed study of the impact of changes in economic variables on our consumer important guiding role for the development of effective policies to promote the consumption of stimulating domestic demand has important practical significance in our country at this stage. Since 1998, China's real estate market-oriented reforms, the rapid development of China's real estate industry, a relatively ordinary industry developed into important industry in China's national economy. The rapid rise in house prices has become a hot issue of universal concern in the economic and social life of residents. In recent years, China's housing prices overall in terms of rendering continuous rising trend in some cities, but in recent years the volume decline, the future trend of China's real estate prices is uncertain, so the study of the effects of price changes household consumption more important. According to Western economic theory, the value of wealth owned by the consumer is an important factor affecting consumer. Promote consumption of wealth owned by the residents, our residents a higher homeownership rate, and real estate accounted for a large proportion of personal assets, house expenses accounted for a larger proportion of the life expenses. Changes in prices not only affect the consumer through the total wealth of the affected residents, there is a very important aspect is that housing prices may enable residents to buy a home and increase savings, thus extrusion consumption of residents. In addition, changes in prices may also through a number of ways for residents consumer impact. Therefore, the overall impact on the direction of house price movements reflects China's consumer uncertainty. This paper studies of the consumption effects of price changes on price changes on household consumption how there is no significant impact, and confirmed by empirical research, mainly consumer promotion or inhibition. This paper uses a combination of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis to study the impact of prices on household consumption. First through theoretical analysis to study the reasons for China's rapidly rising house prices over the past few years, prices on household consumption pathway and impact characteristics. Empirical analysis of selected data of the first quarter of 1999 to the fourth quarter of 2009, the establishment of vector auto regression model, and then using the impulse response function and variance decomposition method to further analyze the effect of changes in real estate prices in China on household consumption, as well as other effects consumer household consumption significantly the degree of impact way, draw empirical conclusions about the impact of price changes consumer. The research results show that China's real estate prices on the consumer does not reflect the wealth effect, showed inhibition, but the impact is not great. Income is still the most important factors that determine consumer spending. Finally, according to the specific situation of China's economic interpretation of the empirical results, and propose appropriate policy recommendations.

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CLC: > Economic > The world economic profiles,economic history,economic geography > China's economy > Economic construction and development > National income, national wealth
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