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Impact analysis of changes in bank interest rates and real estate prices in Xi'an

Author: ZhangZuoYuan
Tutor: LiuKaiRui
School: Shaanxi Normal University
Course: Management of land resources
Keywords: Bank interest rates Xi'an real estate Price
CLC: F293.3;F224
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2011
Downloads: 267
Quote: 1
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Abstract


Xi'an real estate market in recent years, the rapid development of the real estate industry has become one of the pillar industries. At the same time, the prices also comprehensive climbed Xi'an ordinary residential average price from 2009 to 4695 yuan / square meter, to November 2010 reached 6,873 yuan / square meters, an increase of 27.3% year-on-year. The rapid increases in house prices has not only brought a lot of social problems, exacerbated the probability of the occurrence of the financial risk, the real estate market is not conducive to the sustained, stable and healthy development, thus causing the widespread concern of the community. Interest rate policy is widely considered to be one of the important means of government macro-control of the real estate market, changes in interest rates not only directly affect the costs and profits of the real estate development companies, also affect the confidence of homebuyers loan repayment pressure and ability to pay, role in real estate prices but also by the relationship between supply and demand. Bank interest rate policy on how the effectiveness of the regulation of real estate prices in Xi'an, this paper focus. This article is from the theory of the interest rate and real estate prices start to build the analytical framework of the impact of interest rates on real estate prices based on supply and demand model. The rise in short-term interest rates, the decline in real estate turnover, resulting in market prices; long-term interest rates to raise real estate prices have rebounded, but the volume will drop conclusion theoretically provide a theoretical basis for further research. By analyzing the relationship between macroeconomic background and the real estate market of the previous interest rate policy change, combined with the actual situation, and discusses the three aspects of the impact of the changes in interest rates in recent years, the real estate market in Xi'an supply, demand, and price. The results show that, the impact of changes in interest rates of the National Bank of Xi'an real estate price was a short-term negative correlation. On this basis, the measurement of statistical software related data correlation, causality and generalized impulse response function and measuring statistical analysis, empirical tests of bank interest rates and changes in real estate prices in Xi'an. The research results show that the premise of considering inflation, interest rates on deposits, lending rates, the central bank lending rate to financial institutions, personal housing accumulation fund loan interest rates and Xi'an real estate prices was a short-term negative change, long-term positive change; rediscount rate and statutory deposit reserve ratio Xi'an real estate price fluctuations have little effect. Comprehensive analysis of the results showed that changes in interest rates and Xi'an real estate price short-term negative correlation. Combine the results of empirical test, the from two levels improve and perfect the interest rate system and Xi'an real estate market, the proposed comprehensive measures to stabilize the Xi'an real estate market prices, and to promote the sustained and healthy development of the real estate market in Xi'an. The paper's analysis is based on changes in interest rates impact Xi'an prices, but the analysis method used in other regions will have a certain reference. Interest rate regulation of government-directed economic operation of the vane, policy control is an effective tool, the thesis once again strengthen this argument.

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CLC: > Economic > Economic planning and management > Economic calculation, economic and mathematical methods > Economic and mathematical methods
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