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Research on the Relationship between Asset Prices and Inflation in China

Author: MaHongZuo
Tutor: LiuXiHe
School: Tianjin University of Finance and Economics
Course: Finance
Keywords: Asset price lnflation real estate price index stock price index
CLC: F822.5;F224
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2011
Downloads: 112
Quote: 0
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Abstract


Historically, price stability has been listed in the first goal by the central banks or monetary authorities of a country. However, even when price stays stably in a country, there may also be volatility in asset markets, seriously affect socio-economic development and the stability of the financial system. Serious inflation will not only undermine the stability of social and economic development, but affect social stability. In this background, people need to strengthen the concerns and research that the relationship of the assets price volatility and inflation, particularly since the 90s of last century, along with the stock market and real estate market of China’s rapid development, residents in the stock and real estate assets ratio improved. Accompanied by rising asset prices, China’s Price level has continued to rise,inflation is expected to inerease.Therefore, the study that the relationship between the asset price fluctuations and inflation will have a significant theoretical and practical significance. And it can provide the theoretical basis and guidance of direction for the monetary authorities to development and implementation of effective macro-control policy monetary.In the first part, it elaborates the complex transmission mechanism between asset prices and inflation. This article focuses on the relationship between price and inflation by two aspects of the real estate market and stock market. The real estate market mainly through the wealth effect and the effect of bank balance sheets, the stock market through the Tobin Q effect, the corporate balance sheet effects and the wealth effect aggregate demand and thus inflation. In the second part, according to co integration analysis, Granger causality tests and error correction model, use monthly data in China during 2005-2010 to empirical analysis the relationship between the asset prices and the inflation.Empirical research shows that:first,the long-term equilibrium relationship between the inflation and the asset prices exists. The asset prices has a significant positive role in promoting the inflation; Second, there is one-way causal relationship between the inflation and the asset prices, that housing prices are the cause of inflation, while the relationship between the stock price and inflation is not apparent.Finally,based on theoretical analysis and empirical analysis,according to the actual situation of our country,policy recommendations are given to prevent foam and inflation of assets:improve the stock market,curbe excessive speculation, reasonable control of the money supply, enhancing the credibility of macroeconomic regulation and control and building equal and fair economic environment.

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CLC: > Economic > Economic planning and management > Economic calculation, economic and mathematical methods > Economic and mathematical methods
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