|
Since the 1960s, the world agricultural trade pattern has changed greatly. At national level, countries have experienced natural, economic and political fluctuations, making the world agricultural trade volatile. In sequence of time process, the prices of agricultural products are high in recent years. Combined with energy shortage and high oil price, the global contradiction between food supply and demand will be further aggravated.Some scholars have done researches about the agricultural products market structure or market behavior, but as the object, the time interval, trade countries and investigation index is different, conclusion is different. After 40 years of development, what happened to the world’s major agricultural products market structure and conduct? What are the shock factors? This is the purpose of this paper to analyze.This paper firstly reveals the trade structure of maize and wheat through indexes of 40 years’ trade yields, export prices, market concentration and exchange rates,etc. Secondly, I formulate an simultaneous model which represents "structure-conduct" paradigm, and estimates coefficients by generalized matrix method and then explain each agricultural product’s global market conduct. I also do contrast with rice and soybean. Finally, with international comparison, this paper puts forward advices for our country as how to better participate in international agricultural products trade.
|