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A Forecasting Model of Tourism Destination Market Scale Based on the Gravitation Model

Author: DongWeiJiang
Tutor: JinPingBin；ChengYuShen
School: Zhejiang University
Course: Human geography
Keywords: Travel Source markets Gravity Model Travel rate Travel Destinations
CLC: F592
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2011
Downloads: 266
Quote: 1
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Abstract


Source markets affecting tourism an important factor of survival and development, with the rapid development of tourism, the tourist market research attention gradually. Research methods for reference of the tourist market behavior, market and geography research, in recent years, a descriptive study on the tourist market is declining, while increasing the quantitative study of the tourist market. First, this article summarizes the theory of the tourist market research, analysis and comparison of the tourism market research methods, the final choice to the gravity model tourist market. One of the advantages of the gravity model is to facilitate the empirical analysis, but also there is a lack of theoretical research shortcomings. In this paper, the travel consumer behavior theory, theory and distance of travel demand decay theory, to find a theoretical basis for building lead a force model. Then build a gravity model. Gravity model originated in Newtonian physics, the law of attraction, that the gravitational attraction between two objects with them is proportional to the mass, and inversely proportional to the distance between them. Cited gravity model introduced humanities research is an innovation, but as a tourist basic theory of gravity model study was not thorough enough, nor on the scope of the study is to define clearly, the definition is not very accurate, the research focuses on the qualitative analysis. Based on the cited a force model definition, Tourism and tourist places tourists as two \Construction of the gravity model. Finally, Longyou Grottoes study to do empirical research. Through empirical research, the gravity model formula, the proven theoretical calculation results with the actual statistics match. The main results of this paper by theoretical analysis of the main factors that determine the impact of tourists travel distance and income, and to construct a reasonable gravity model to provide a new method for the tourist market research. This possible innovations: First Perspective innovation, this paper to replace the simple qualitative analysis to quantitative analysis, quantitative study of the tourist market to provide innovative perspective; research methods innovation, this paper using a combination of theoretical and empirical research methods, Longyou Grottoes study to verify the reasonableness of the theoretical formula; study of technological innovation, using GIS techniques in data processing and scientific data processing method.

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CLC: > Economic > Tourism economy > China 's tourism industry
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