|
The real estate industry is the pillar industry of China’s national economy, and it relates with the majority of people’s daily lives and the social stability; listed estate companies as the typical representative, has the big influence to the domestic capital market. Therefore, its level of earnings quality is more affected by the close attention of stakeholders. After reviewing the present domestic and foreign research literature, there is a big progress in the research about earnings equality. But learners neglected that the real estate earnings quality evaluation system is a "gray" system. Based on this condition, the paper introduces the Gray Theory and the Gray Correlation Analysis, plans to establish the overall target appraisal system, carries on comprehensive analysis to the earnings quality of the real estate company.This paper discusses that the real estate company earnings quality is not only affected by the legal environment, the accounting policy choices and uses, the corporate governance structure, the composition of the profit, the cash guarantee of earnings and risks as general factors, but also by the monetary policy, fiscal policy and land policy as special factors; argues that earnings of high-quality should have the following basic characters: the authenticity, profitability, sustainability, stability, growth, the cash guarantee and security; and then selects thirteen parameters as symbolic representation of the characters, to establish the comprehensive evaluation system of earnings quality. The gray static analysis model is used to sort 51 listed real estate companies’ earnings quality of 2010; the gray dynamic model is used to analysis the earnings quality of Vanke A, choosing the data from 2007 to 2010 Annual Report; factor analysis is used to appraise the same 51 listed real estate companies in 2010, but the result is remarkably different from the result of gray static analysis model.This paper shows that: by determining the weight of each financial index, we know sustainability and the cash guarantee have the key influences to the real estate earnings quality’s comprehensive condition; Guanghui Shares, Vanke A, Donghua Industrial, Shahe Shares, Yue Hong Yuan A have most closely relation to the reference earnings quality in 2010; considering the "gray" of the system, the Gray Correlation Analysis method lead the the evaluation process and evaluation results more rational and objective. At the last, this paper suggests that Listed real estate companies should focus on the prominent main business service, the cash flow as well as the establishment risk assessment mechanism, in order to improve the earnings quality.
|