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China’s Inflation Influence Factors and Management Research under the New Situation

Author: QuanLiMei
Tutor: LuZuo
School: Dongbei University of Finance
Course: Finance
Keywords: inflation money supply exchange rate raising interest rate capital contral
CLC: F822.5
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2011
Downloads: 252
Quote: 0
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Abstract


Our economy had undergone years of rapid growth and low inflation, due to overheating, a higher level of inflation came in 2007. Affected by the subprime mortgage crisis of the United States and global financial crisis, this round of inflation suddenly ended, but the policy of expansion put the second half of 2009 into a new round of inflation.A new round of price increase is significantly food, housing and primary commodity prices rise, and brings the overall price level under rising pressure. Until June 2011, our inflation rate had reached 6.4%.Therefore, to explore the factors of inflation in the new situation, also to make the preventing and controlling policy against inflation, have important significance for alleviating the inflationary pressures.There are five parts in this article.The first part mainly introduces the subject background, the research meaning, review, research content and methods, innovations and deficiencies.The second part is theories and theoretical analysis of inflation. It mainly introduces the meaning and main factors of inflation and their influencing mechanism to it.The third part is the situation of global inflation and its controlling method after crisis, from which we sum up experiences for China.The fourth part is the new situation of our inflation and its factors. It mainly introduces the current inflation situation and characteristics. By establishing VEC model, Impulse Response and the Variance Decomposition, we get a conclusion that in the new situation, our inflation is mainly affected by money supply, foreign exchange rate of RMB, foreign exchange reserves, the international iron ores price. We also get the long-term and short-term relations between them, and make description of their dynamic influence.The fifth part is the proposal, based on conclusions from the empirical analyses. We propose from the aspects of monetary policy, exchange rate system, regulatory and fiscal policies.This article sums up the inflationary factors research conclusions from scholars around the world, makes a more comprehensive and reasonable thinking and analysis of the static and dynamic ways in which the relevant factors influence the inflation. With consideration to global inflation situation, learning from experiences of other countries, from our own economic reality, we provide governance proposals. All of that shows certain originalities.

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CLC: > Economic > Fiscal, monetary > Currency > China's currency > Inflation
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