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Study on Group Decision Making Method Based on Evidence Reason

Author: LiuDongBiao
Tutor: ZhangSuoDi；RenLuShun
School: Shanxi University of Finance
Course: Technology Economics and Management
Keywords: Evidence Theory Combination Rule Absurdity Group Decision Making
CLC: F224
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2008
Downloads: 233
Quote: 4
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Abstract


Not only can Dempster-Shafer evidence theory describe uncertainty, but also is very flexible in solving the problem of uncertainty. Especially, evidence theory is used widely as a group decision making method. But, using evidence theory is restricted by the absurdities of D-S combination rule. To the question, studies should be continued, and this paper mainly studies the following aspects:1.Study on the absurdities of D-S combination rule and the reasonsThe paper presents four classical absurdities of D-S combination rule, including the absurdity of Zadeh’s form, the absurdity of Shield, the absurdity of polarization backward, and the absurdity of focal elements cardinality. Then, it analyzes reasons that may cause the absurdities. Through analyzing two kinds of methods to dispel the absurdities, it draws the conclusion: two kinds of methods to dispel the absurdities do not dispel the absurdities virtually, have some limitation in practical application.2.Give a method of measuring the resemble degree among evidences to analyze the practical ranges of all kinds of methodsConsidering two respects of conflict intensity and similar coefficient among evidences, this paper presents a method to measure the resemble degree to different absurdities.then, it analyzes all kinds of combination rule, marks the practical ranges of these combination rules.3.Build a group decision making model of unascertained information based on Evidence ReasonThrough introducing unascertained rational number to improve group decision making model, this paper builds a group decision making model of unascertained information based on Evidence Reason. Finally, an example of estimating value of the real estate is given to demonstrate the validity and the practicability of this model.

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CLC: > Economic > Economic planning and management > Economic calculation, economic and mathematical methods > Economic and mathematical methods
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