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Demonstration Research into the Impact of the Rising Cost of Education on Urban Inhabitants’ Consumption Behavior

Author: ZhangMeiLing
Tutor: HangBin
School: Shanxi University of Finance
Course: Quantitative Economics
Keywords: State-space model Tuition and Child Care relative index Consumption behavior ECM Model Cointegration Panel Data Model
CLC: F126.1
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2008
Downloads: 116
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Abstract

Since reforming and opening up, although disposable income of residents has been increasing, the average propensity consumption is dropped .This change in consumer behavior during this period has reflected relatively weak consumer potential demand, while the corresponding savings deposits of residents has emerged extraordinary growth characteristics, and this situation will go on. Thus, why does exit this phenomenon? To address this issue, Home and abroad’s scholars have made a considerable amount of research from different angles, but I hold that the rising cost of education is an important reason why the consumer market has been depressing since 1996.So the theme of this dissertation is to study long and short consumer behavior of urban residents affected the rising cost of education and to discuss the characteristics impact of the food consumption behavior from different income groups by employing the econometrics models. Then based on the experimental conclusions, the author will present some suggestions for the Chinese macroeconomic policy-makers.The article includes five parts:Chapter one: Preface, the author introduces the background, purpose and significance of this paper. Based on the above mentioned facts, the author draws the fundamental trails of thoughts and main contents. Chapter two: In this part, the author reviews the theory of consumption functions in new classical economics.Chapter three: This part is the most important. Probe long and short consumer behavior of urban residents affected by the rising cost of education. Firstly, estimate long-term time-varying equilibrium relationship between consumption and income by means of establishing state-space model and Kalman filtering method. Secondly, introducing the rising cost of education (measured by Tuition and Child Care relative index), I establish two short-term dynamic error correction models, and thus study the impact of the rising cost of education on the short-term consumption of urban residents. Last, building the corresponding cointegration relationship between consumption, income and the rising cost of education gains long-term impact of increasing education fee on the consumption of urban residents’behavior. Through this deep study, the author puts forward the conclusion that the influence of increasing education fee on long and short-term cities consumer’s behaviors all is negative, and the rising cost of education affects the consumption structure of urban residents.Chapter four: In this part, the author utilizes the Characteristic Analysis to discuss the effect on food consumer s’behavior of income difference, and utilizes the Panel Data Model to discuss crowding-out effect of their food consumption, which is influenced by the rising cost of education.Chapter five: To summarize the conclusions that mentioned in the previous The major contributions of this dissertation are that:Firstly, considering the need to focus on studying the affected consumer behavior for the rising cost of education of urban residents, I have established two error correction models for comparative analysis. Thus we obtain the impact of the rising cost of education, and from the contrast analysis we also can draw the conclusions that urban residents make the consumption more rational because of the rising cost of education, and consumption of urban residents do not deviate from of long-run equilibrium between income and consumption.Secondly, through the establishment of consumption, income and Tuition and Child Care index of cointegration relationship we make the conclusion that: since the late 1990s, rising cost of education has been increased excessively and quickly. Although the inhabitant consumers’behavior has not deviated the consumption and the income long-term balanced relations, but it results to occupying other expenses, which has affected the inhabitant consumption pattern.

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