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Study on Demand Forecasting and Layout Planning of Traffic Land in Linyi

Author: WangZhiGang
Tutor: MaRenHui
School: Hebei Normal
Course: Physical Geography
Keywords: Traffic land Demand forecasting Layout planning Linyi
CLC: F512.7;F301
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2009
Downloads: 174
Quote: 3
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Abstract


Transportation is the basic industry of national economy and social development,and it is also the important component and sustenance of the regional economy.Traffic conditions directly influences the pace of the development of the regional economy.To meet the ever-increasing transportation demand,and ensure the healthy development of economy,we must speed up the construction of traffic infrastructure.However Construction of traffic infrastructure required for many land,and our country’s land resources are very limited.How to ensure the healthy development of economy and save land resources is an urgent and realistic issue.To solve this problem,the paper studies the demand forecasting and the layout planning of traffic land in Linyi.Firstly the study analyses of the couple relation between transportation and economic development,discusses the role which transportation plays in the process of promoting economic development,and also probes the influence that social economic activities have on the development of transportation.Secondly the paper selects the main evaluation index of transportation and regional economic,constructs macroscopic comprehensive development index.By quantitative analysis of the index,the paper concludes proximate coordination between the level of traffic development and that of economic development.To ensure coordinated development of traffic and economic in future,it is very important to determine future demand quantity of traffic land.The paper chooses GM and BP to establish combined forecasting model and uses the model to forecast demand quantity of traffic land in Linyi,then calculates the quantity of traffic land to adapt to the expected economic aggregate in 2010 and 2020.The paper also uses grey relational analysis to choose influencing-factors of traffic land,thus optimizes BP Neural Networks input variable and gains satisfactory effect.Furthermore,the paper analyzes internal and external factors and realistic condition in Linyi and proposes guiding principles to guide traffic layout in Linyi and layout conception to construct Jing-like traffic corridor.By the study of this paper,not only is the combined forecasting model for the demand of traffic land established,but also the theory is applied to practice.And the paper finds the quantitative relation between the development of economy and the demand quantity of traffic land in Linyi,forecasts the future demand quantity of traffic land in Linyi,provides the scientific method and means to coordinate the relation between the development of economic and protection of land resources,and has the certain guiding significance for the construction of traffic and the development of economy.Finally,the paper proposes the trend of traffic development and the layout conception based on the natural conditions of Linyi,the current situation of economic and social development in Linyi.It has the certain reference value for the optimization of traffic distribution structure in Linyi.

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CLC: > Economic > Agricultural economy > Agricultural economic theory > Land Economics
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