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Predictive Analysis of Non-point Source Pollution Load in Jialing River Watershed

Author: LiWanFeng
Tutor: LongTianYu
School: Chongqing University
Course: Urban environment and ecological engineering
Keywords: Jialing River Basin Non-point source pollution load forecast Export coefficient method SLURP hydrological model Markov transition matrix
CLC: X52
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2009
Downloads: 236
Quote: 4
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Abstract


With the gradual control of point source pollution, non-point source pollution has become the primary source of pollution of water environment. Jialing River Basin is the largest area of ??the Three Gorges Reservoir, a tributary, to carry its water quality is directly related to the whole of the Yangtze River Three Gorges reservoir water safety. Carried out on non-point source Jialing River nitrogen and phosphorus pollution forecasting studies, the Jialing River and the Three Gorges Reservoir watershed for social and economic environment for sustainable development is of great significance. In this study, from 2020 to 2030 as forecast years to 1997 to 2007 as the base year, the Jialing River basin-wide non-point source pollution into the land output, livestock breeding and agricultural population three sources of pollution, the improved export coefficient Law and suitable for large basin SLURP hydrological forecasting model coupling, build watershed non-point source pollution load model, and model validation. Application of the constructed model, using: ① Markov transition matrix for the future watershed scale land use / land cover change analysis; ② UK Met Office HADLEY center of global climate change models PRECIS projected climate change programs B2 mode climate change scenarios; ③ watershed municipalities within the socio-economic development level and identifying future strategic development goals livestock and agricultural population to simulate the predicted years of non-point source pollution load. Through comparative analysis, the following main conclusions: ① Jialing River basin outlet non-point sources of nitrogen and phosphorus pollution load in predicting the 2020 ~ 2030 with base year 1997 to 2007 compared to the increasing trend, and its increasing trend with rainfall Trail Flow has a very similar trends. ② forecast 2020 ~ 2030 with base year 1997 to 2007, compared Jialing River basin provincial exports and the contribution rate of the major sources of pollution have the same trend: the contribution of livestock output load over time significantly increasing trend, agricultural output load contribution rate of population has declined, the contribution rate of land output load changes little over time and the output load of arable land biggest contribution rate, the minimum contribution rate of urban land. This is because the scale of livestock with social and economic development continues to expand, the agricultural population as urbanization gradually reduced, the total land area within the watershed constant and increasing urban land arable land continues to decline. ③ provinces within the Jialing River in Chongqing and Sichuan region of non-point source pollution load intensity is higher than the average within the watershed pollution load strength; Gansu and Shaanxi non-point source pollution load strength is below the range of watershed average pollution load intensity. Forecast 2020 to 2030 with a base year from 1997 to 2007 compared to the pollution load of provinces have increased in intensity and the greatest increases in Sichuan. Sichuan region's major sources of pollution are livestock output, Gansu and Shaanxi land output is the region's major sources of pollution. This is because the intensity of the pollution load municipalities with their social and economic development and industrial structure.

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CLC: > Environmental science, safety science > Environmental pollution and its prevention > Water pollution and its control
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