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Research of the Scenario Planning Methods in the Application of Urban Design

Author: ZhangLi
Tutor: HuWen
School: Chongqing University
Course: Urban Planning and Design
Keywords: Scenario planning Urban design Analysis method Workflow
CLC: TU984
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2011
Downloads: 207
Quote: 0
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Abstract

In recent years, urban design plays an increasingly role in China’s urban construction, its increasingly prominent work dimensions expands gradually, the research object is no longer confined to only space, and more related to social, economic, cultural, political, and other aspects of urban development environmental factors. However, because our country is in an unprecedented high-speed urbanization development period, the uncertain of city development environment factors enhanced, which as the research object of urban design work, it corresponding increases the risk of urban design work. Meanwhile, in the face of globalization, the development competition between cities exacerbated, it also has bringed greater challenge to urban design. Therefore, in the face of such environmental risks and demand challenges, urban design need to put more predictive and competitive strategy and plan boost urban development.While the traditional urban design method, because of its formation background and working ideas, and other aspects of limitations, already cannot satisfy highly uncertain environment of urban development. Meanwhile, as the professional knowledge structure restriction of urban design work team, when faced with a complex urban development environment, to clear the ideas, make accurate scientific judgment will ragged, all this will lead to the urban design works lack of scientific, systematic and study depth. Therefore, innovative urban design concept and looking for a set of design methods more responsive to the needs of current development of Chinese cities become a priority task in current urban design works.While "scenario planning" as a kind of mature business field application enterprise planning method have stronger systematic and scientific in the analysis, research, predict the future market environment, etc, it is an effective planning method deal with highly uncertain and complex future environment. It brings enormous enlightenment for urban design innovation.This paper compare enterprise market environment with the social environment of urban development, reference the systematic methods of scenario planning approach applied in urban design work. Use of the equilibrium in a team work of scenario planning to reduce the risk of individual subjective assumption in urban design; Use of the game thinking methods to market of scenario planning to improve the speculative of urban design, Use of the effective analysis for early market warning information of scenario planning to enhance the contingency of urban design. General purpose is to use of the advantage of scenario planning methods to bring a new thinking for the development of urban design work, in response to current urban development environment.The research followed a general idea of "cognitive - summary - reference idea– use ". Main content includes the following several parts. First, realize the value advantage and basic principle of scenario planning. Second, analys the current urban design development-oriented and working method, summarizes the problems involved. Third, through the study of scenario planning, borrowing the advantage logic and methods to urban design in combination with practice, then construct a new urban design logical system and method system. Fourth, in the scenario planning working process for guidance, to discusse the urban design working process based on the scenario planning. Finally from the theoretical exploration into the practice verification, use a intuitive case to analys the method on the practical application.

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