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Based on Option Game New Product Development Investment Decision

Author: HeJinZhou
Tutor: ZhangWeiGuo
School: Chongqing University
Course: Business management
Keywords: New Product Development Option Game Symmetric duopoly Asymmetric duopoly Investment balance
CLC: F273.2
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2009
Downloads: 144
Quote: 0
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Abstract


In modern enterprises, new product development has become a business in an important job. Accordingly, as an economic decision-making, how comprehensive, accurate, objective evaluation of the feasibility of new product development decision-making process or management practices become increasingly urgent need to solve the problem. Traditional project evaluation method for enterprise project investment decision provides important quantitative basis, but because in real life, the process of production and operation of enterprises are faced with many uncertainties, corporate investment decisions made itself covers a large number of uncertainties, so the traditional investment appraisal methods can not reflect the investment decision making has the value of flexibility, you can not make investments in new product development, scientific analysis and evaluation. Although considered a real option value of flexibility in business decisions, but it does not take into account the interaction between investment decisions, ignoring the competitor's reaction, it can not be a complete real options approach to evaluate new product development investment decisions. Based on option game theory and methods to assess the value of investment projects, taking into account both the value of flexibility in decision making, again competition between investors value the impact of the project included in the study, to make up for the shortcomings of the traditional investment approach, the project The value assessment tends to be more objective and accurate. Thesis by comparing the domestic and foreign scholars on the Options Game Research, based on the first analysis and comparison of the current evaluation on the investment decisions of several main methods of option game focuses on the theory and method; and development of new products based on the continuity features, introduced under conditions of uncertainty factor substitution between products, the establishment of product substitution factor containing new product development investment option game model, and were analyzed symmetric and asymmetric duopoly model of strategic equilibrium, papers found with The increased volatility of the market, competition participants also increasing investment thresholds, that market uncertainty sapped investor enthusiasm. Further, the paper uses computer simulation methods, focusing on analysis of the product substitution coefficient on initial investment cost implications, the study found in the non-simultaneous equilibrium, with the product replacement coefficient decreases, companies upfront investment cost was strictly an increasing trend; while at the same investment equilibrium, with product substitution coefficient decreases, showing the pre-investment costs are not strictly increasing.

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CLC: > Economic > Economic planning and management > Enterprise economy > Production management > Product Management
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