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Study on New Mode of Community-based Influenza Surveillance in Tianjin

Author: LiLin
Tutor: XieJuan
School: Tianjin Medical University
Course: Epidemiology and Biostatistics,
Keywords: Influenza Community-based monitoring ARIMA Temporal and spatial analysis Forecast
CLC: R511.7
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2011
Downloads: 38
Quote: 0
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Abstract


Objective: To explore the whole population of community-based influenza surveillance methods , to establish a new type of influenza surveillance mode . Methods : from October 2009 to February 2011 , in Hangu District Hangu Street , big franca population - wide influenza surveillance , including monitoring of ILI (influenza like illness, ILI) , on the basis of rapid detection of influenza virus pathogen monitoring , cold medicines sales monitoring, as well as the burden of disease . Community residents suffering from flu-like symptoms treatment intention surveys , community residents suffering from flu-like symptoms after visiting rate correction of ILI and influenza incidence . The cumulative and methods of the Application the EARS Software 's outbreak alert, space-time scan analysis applications SaTScan software communities ILI . Predictive analysis using autoregressive the summation moving average model (Autoregressive integrated moving average, ARIMA) ILI . Results: the treatment of community residents due to flu-like symptoms was 20.9% . October 2009 to February 2011 , a total of report ILI700 cases , ILI percentage share of the total number of cases of treatment (ILI%) 1.19% . 2010 ILI incidence rate 2397.60/10 influenza incidence rate of 94.64/10 . October 2009 to March 2010 flu season , the Community Influenza Surveillance ILI number with national sentinel surveillance the date of ILI ( delay = 0) correlation ( Spearman rank correlation coefficient rs = 0.675 , P = 0.000 ) . The strongest cold medicine sales trips related to the degree of ILI with the previous week ( delay = -1) (rs = 0.620, P = 0.000). Community influenza pandemic strain sentinel hospital monitoring similar to the pandemic strain . Compared with sentinel hospital monitoring , towns and rural communities influenza strains appear 3-4 weeks after the peak late in sentinel hospitals in epidemic strains . ARIMA (0,1,1) (0,1,1) 7 model can well fit the community ILI incidence . Cumulative and SaTScan space-time scan analysis found 10 aggregation area , confirmed that the two outbreaks confirmed . The per capita spending of hospitalized cases of 1692.86 yuan , the outpatients per capita spending of 263.43 yuan . Conclusion : Community Influenza Surveillance mode to make up for the existing influenza surveillance network based on two or more hospitals , the two complement each other , do influenza epidemic early warning and forecast to provide a theoretical basis for public health decision-making .

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CLC: > Medicine, health > Internal Medicine > Infectious disease > Viral infections > Influenza
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