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Study on Financial Distress Prediction of the Manufacturing Listed Companies in China

Author: TanYingYing
Tutor: KongYuSheng
School: Jiangsu University
Course: Accounting
Keywords: Listed Manufacturing Companies Financial Distress Principal component analysis Logit regression model
CLC: F406.72
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2009
Downloads: 494
Quote: 3
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Abstract


Manufacturing industrial base of China's economic development , occupies a large proportion of listed companies in China . At the same time, due to manufacturing features as well as an increasingly competitive market environment, coupled with the impact of the economic crisis , many manufacturing listed companies have because of poor management and other internal and external factors into a financial crisis , more and more difficult to maintain normal operation , even to the brink of bankruptcy situation . Therefore , we seek to establish the ways of the financial crisis early warning , the establishment of a financial crisis early warning model , so that it can predict in advance whether the company is in financial crisis , to facilitate enterprise management personnel to take appropriate measures to avoid the loss , listed companies, investors , creditors and other issues of common concern of stakeholders . Firstly, a sample of a manufacturing industry , 07-09 years of financial crisis and the non-financial crisis enterprises selected in accordance with the sample selection and matching the standard of 40 , based on the analysis of the causes of the financial crisis , select the index system ; Second, conducted a series of indicators screening, including normality test , the test of significance and principal component analysis to filter out the five main components , the establishment of a Logit regression model ; confirmed tested , the model showed good prediction accuracy ; Finally, the combined application of the model put forward some recommendations . The results show that the listed companies in the manufacturing sector financial crisis can predict various indicators of financial crisis early warning capacity was weak , net profit growth on total assets , return on net assets , interest coverage ratio of the enterprise . expression and predict financial position is relatively clear. Therefore, enterprises should be more concerned about the situation with regard to profitability , once deterioration tendency to take timely measures to avoid falling into financial crisis .

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CLC: > Economic > Industrial economy > Industrial economic theory > Organization and management of industrial enterprises > Financial management and accounting > Financial management, cost management
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