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Objective: To understand the long-term survival and assess the relevant parameters and the relationship between the prognosis of pemphigus of Guangxi region, in order to explore the impact of long-term survival related factors for the future development of rational treatment programs of pemphigus, improving the efficacy and reduce the death rate .Methods: Retrospective analysis method: choose 113cases of the first hospitalization’s pemphigus patient’s(from January 1th, 2001 to December 30th 2008) complete data on their medical records ,and telephoned them to investigate the patients or their families to obtain follow-up data ,used Microsoft Acess create a personal database. Retrospective onset from diagnosed date ,ended with the death date.For some information loss , 23 cases can not follow-up, the lost rate was 20.2%. The follow-up ended on February 4th, 2010. The study factors including clinical manifestations, relevant laboratory results, treatment and prognosis and so on.Used statistical software package of SPSS13.0 survival to analysis, survival curves used Kaplan-Meier method, Cox univariate analysis and Cox multivariate analysis, choose the factors which related to the first single-factor of hazards Cox proportional analysis, used multi-factor Cox proportional model analysis, P <0.05 as statistically significant. Results:1. The male to female ratio of this group patients is 1.02:1, onset age from 11 to 79 years old, half of them are between the age of 40 to 60 years old .with a mean age of 46.12 years old, The pemphigus vulgaris accounting for 82%; the gender is basically the same for men and women, There are more men pemphigus foliaceus than women. The most common njure part is oral mucosa , following by is the trunk and head, face, starting positions for the limbs are most rare.The pemphigus vulgaris’s PLT resulte is higher than the other two obvious pemphigus patients;And compared with pemphigus herpetiformis, the pemphigus foliaceus’s ALT rise and ALB decreased is significantly. Pemphigus vulgaris and pemphigus foliaceus used larger hormone during hospitalization than the pemphigus herpetiformis.2.Of the 113 pemphigus patients, within the first 15 months,s after diagnosis survival rate is low.3. The role of single-factor analysis which was statistically significant (P<0.05) variables were age, mucosal damage, WBC, RBC, DBIL, ALT, AST results, only use hormones to cure , IgA results.4.The multi-factor analysis, the independence affect of the prognosis of pemphigus are ALT results, RBC result, only use hormone therapy , mucosal damage, age and infection. their regression coefficients were >0, Exp (B) the value of the risk factors that are >1, The result indicated that they are harm to the prognosis.5. According to the results of multivariate analysis, fitting the survival model for patients with pemphigus: h(tx)=h0(t)exp(1.508X1+2.162X2+1.338X3+0.671X4+1.956X5+1.325X6); Prognostic index: PI=1.508X1+2.162X2+1.338X3+0.671X4+1.956X5+1.325X6) The smaller the PI value is, the better the prognosis are.Conclusion:1. Pemphigus vulgaris and pemphigus foliaceus patients,s clinical condition is more serious, so to control their condition, the needed of the hormone was higher than pemphigus herpetiformis patients.2. There is high mortality rates within the 15 months after diagnosis .3. ALT rise, RBC decline, only use hormones therapy,combined mucosal damage,age,infection are significant impacts on survival in patients with pemphigus independent factor.
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