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Research on the Monetary Policy’s Transnational Spillover Effect of the Mega-economies

Author: ChangYue
Tutor: CuiYan
School: Liaoning University
Course: World economy
Keywords: Large economies Monetary policy Cross - border spillovers M3 VAR
CLC: F224
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2011
Downloads: 102
Quote: 0
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Abstract


Not only in trade and investment between the countries of the world under the background of economic globalization intensified international mutual competition and cooperation, mutual influence on the formulation and implementation of economic policy, especially in recent years, the monetary policy of the economic power of transnational spillovers Vietnam more obvious during the subprime crisis of the world's major economies in the monetary policy go to war is the best portrayal. Thus, the people began to focus more broadly on the study of cross-border spillover effects of monetary policy, on the one hand of the current study is focused on the monetary policy transmission path, that is, to study international trade, foreign direct investment, foreign exchange reserves, exchange rates, capital market and other factors The interaction between a country's monetary policy, on the other hand is the policy game focused on the study of monetary policy and international coordination. Comprehensive analysis of the theory of cross-border spillover effects of monetary policy and monetary policy under the open economy international spillovers causes and impact analysis, first from the Mundell-Fleming model and game theory point of view; Secondly this article using the VAR model Empirical Analysis of the United States, the euro area, China and Japan, the actual amount of broad money supply M3, by analyzing the relationship between these large economies in the effect of monetary policy formulation and implementation, and to explore the large economies, monetary policy multinational spillover effects. The main conclusions in this paper are: the spillover effects of the monetary policy in the major economies is becoming increasingly clear that in the context of economic globalization, economies Faced with this situation in order to ensure the maximization of self-interest to take the initiative to seek cooperation, actively building various forms of cooperation mechanisms. In addition, the empirical analysis results show that the mutual influence of monetary policy between the United States, the euro zone, China, Japan. Which U.S. monetary policy will significantly affect the euro zone, China, Japan's monetary policy, and monetary policy will cause other regions negatively related to monetary policy; monetary policy in the euro area has a similar effect, but the influence is smaller than that of the United States; China the monetary policy of the United States, the euro area, Japan have a greater impact, but China's own monetary policy independence is better, only by the United States; Japan's monetary policy and other monetary policy Contact are more closely. Through this research, coordination and cooperation between national monetary policy and the monetary policy response in China increasingly severe external monetary shocks make a corresponding adjustment to provide some theoretical basis for policy recommendations, while short-term forecasts for countries on the future direction of monetary policy a method is provided.

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CLC: > Economic > Economic planning and management > Economic calculation, economic and mathematical methods > Economic and mathematical methods
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