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China’s Regional GDP Estimate Research with Statistical Method

Author: SunXiaoXia
Tutor: SunZhuLing
School: Shanghai Jiaotong University
Course: Mathematical Statistics
Keywords: Regional GDP estimates Top-down approach Chow-Lin method Distribution method The estimation of output method
CLC: F124
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2011
Downloads: 122
Quote: 0
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Abstract


In the entire system of national accounts , regional GDP reflects the level of economic development of a region to quantify the health of the regional economy . According to China's current system of national accounts , the central and local accounting classification GDP, the National Bureau of Statistics on the basis of available data , independent accounting data of the national GDP , rather than the weighted sum of local GDP data . As a result , while promoting effective growth related issues , regional aggregated data of the number is much higher than the national totals , and the gap is growing . Therefore, how to improve the region's GDP accounting system to solve the issues related to data convergence is an unavoidable issue of China 's statistical work . According to reports, in recent years , the National Bureau of Statistics has been to study accounting provincial level of GDP . This article is based on its own national conditions , firmly grasp the key issues in the regional GDP accounting started a comprehensive discussion about regional GDP accounting method , areas the sum is greater than the national statistics of reason , and of regional GDP estimates three kinds of statistical methods : allocation method , Geary-Stark output estimation method , Chow-Lin method . Distribution method and the estimation of output method is \regions. Chow-Lin method is the sub - industry of our region's GDP estimates , and the estimation results with the official data to compare the estimation results with official data deviation is small , and can be used as high-frequency data for regional economic analysis and forecasting . After analysis and verification , these three methods for national unified accounting of certain reference value to the region's GDP data .

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CLC: > Economic > The world economic profiles,economic history,economic geography > China's economy > Economic construction and development
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