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Analysis and Research on the Dicision of Real Estate Investment Risk

Author: ZhengZuo
Tutor: LuoZhengShan
School: Xi'an University of Architecture and Technology
Course: Technology Economics and Management
Keywords: Real estate risk dicision entropy weight method
CLC: F293.3;F224
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2010
Downloads: 502
Quote: 2
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Abstract


In recent years, along with the deepening of opening and reform, the real estate in China has developed rapidly and become a driving force for national economic commodity residential construction of a new growth point. Its stable and healthy development is of great significance to the national economy and harmonious society. However, the systematic researches on real estate investment decision in our country are still relative lack. Many real estate developers make decisions blindly just based on their experience, increasing the risk of real estate investment. Thus, the systematic researches are extremely urgent. As a result, using synthetic evaluation of real estate investment solution combined with scientific methods to avoid risks and to make rational decisions is importantly valuable for the fields of theory and practice.This paper intends to do systematic study on the investment risks and decision methods of real estate, by learning from advanced theories of real estate investment decisions in and abroad the country and combining with facts of our country’s real estate development. According to the multiple-attribute feature of real estate, the paper constructs multi-target hierarchical structures, improves evaluation system, adds the estimate of risk degree, and measures the economic benefit and risk degree of risk investment comprehensively. Also, the paper builds decision models based on the TOPSIS evaluation of advanced entropic coefficient method. It constructs a relatively objective and effective multi-target decision method according to the distant relation of array of data in primary samples. Moreover, the use of coefficient algorithm method combined with entropy weight method avoids randomness of the weight valuation. The innovate point of this paper is that it makes the balance and restriction of objective and subjective index.At last, the paper selects the optimal decision by analyzing the three cases of Baijiahu West Garden residential project, proving the effectiveness of the model.Finally, the example checks up the validity and practicability of the model buided.

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CLC: > Economic > Economic planning and management > Economic calculation, economic and mathematical methods > Economic and mathematical methods
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