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Research on China Tobacco Terminal-Retailing System’s Investing Decision Based on Real Option Theory

Author: ChangZhanSheng
Tutor: MiChuanMin
School: Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics
Course: Management Science and Engineering
Keywords: Real option Positive-management model Binary-tree model Gaming option Value-chain elements
CLC: F274;F426.8
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2009
Downloads: 34
Quote: 0
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Abstract


Real option is strategic value assets which give the owner a right to ensure the enterprise possess lasting advantages in marketing Competition .Its creation depends on the keen recognition of environment and its change. As financial option investors have the right to make a Advantageous decision at any time in the environment, it will give a change in the situation of enterprises to make the best interests of the right of choice. In the real option value analysis, project’s value contains a mix of static discount based on the DCF method ,general real option value and gambling option value.This article first plans an investment project based on the actual environmental analysis, That is, the Tobacco Terminal-Retailing System for enhancing bland influence and enlarging the market share, then use the traditional NPV methods to check project’s feasibility on the financial perspective, taken into account the static NPV of investment projects. After that adopts the real option theory to recognize the project’s real option value qualitatively, and then use the third-stage binary tree model calculation and data analysis to get the project’s general real option value. At last make a comparison of the two results. Because of marketing competition and the project itself does not have full of exclusive, this article further adopts gaming option theory to analyze the investment projects’game option value.Finally, makes a comparative analysis between traditional decision methods and option theory in usage, the results of the study concluded, studies have shown that, to enhance the brand for the purpose of cigarette sales Terminal system for tobacco enterprises, in finance it is feasible, in strategy it’s necessity. At last indicates the correct use of the real option of practical implementation issues and good decisions.The innovations in this article, one is to program a positive-management project based on industry’s background and its tendency, that is, the China Tobacco Terminal-Retailing System. The second is to use the real option theory and gaming options to identifies its value step by step. set up an effective and universal significance frame of project investment evaluation and decision making model, particularly from the perspective of the previous key integration carried out quantitative research, and advances the concept of the supply chain elements. In the value estimation made on more consistent with the actual improvement, especially for reference data to make appropriate treatment, so that the deviation between valuation and the true circumstances get smaller.

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