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The Research of Asphalt Industry Price Forecasting Model

Author: GuoRui
Tutor: MengYaQin
School: Jinan University
Course: Basic mathematics
Keywords: price forecasting regression forecasting he difference regression forecas GM(1,1) compositive forecasting
CLC: F426.71
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2008
Downloads: 159
Quote: 1
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Abstract


the topic comes from the demands of asphaltum market forecasting of the CLAAS group of French for the branch of China.Most of asphaltum are used to the construction of highway.but the bid of asphaltum is holding on the early of construction.The availability works really at the final stage.Therefore,the change of asphalt’s price in the coming months and even years is becoming particularly important.Asphaltum is a finally part for the construction of highways,but the bid of asphaltum project is often in the early stage,which requires forecast the future price of asphaltum accurately.The article establish a model of the price forecasting for asphaltum enterprises.Because of the complexity of the system tested,using a specific method to predict simply is unilateralism, this paper here creates a compositive prediction model through weighting an analyse of regression,time series forecasting and Gray system forecasting.Using the provided information comprehensive by various methods to improve the accuracy of the forecast as far as possible.As the price of asphalt volatiles in recent years by various factors,so in this model we will focus on the handling of the original data.The reasonable choices improve the accuracy of the model and make the data become stable by using policy-factor treatment,First difference and so on.

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