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The Option Game and Its Application in the Tourism Investment

Author: SongZhanSong
Tutor: LiuLiQiu
School: Tianjin University
Course: Technology Economics and Management
Keywords: Option Game Investment Analysis Tourism Investment
CLC: F590
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2007
Downloads: 161
Quote: 2
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Abstract


Each investment project, in order to ensure its success, should investment decision analysis, tourism investment project is no exception. In today's world, tourism has become the main source of income for many countries, especially in those countries with rich tourism resources. Each country have a lot of tourist attractions, however, not every tourist attractions are natural, many attractions are formed by special project construction. Before project construction, experts from several aspects of the project will be to build decision analysis, to determine whether there is a need for further construction. Make decisions on investment projects, mainly into three categories: The first category is based on the net present value (NPV) method, as the representative of the discounted cash flow method, these methods assume that the future is determined, can be unpredictable, and cash flows in accordance with the predetermined number of inflow and outflow. However, this assumption is generally in reality is not established, even the greatest scholars, every thing in the future can not be accurately anticipated. The future is uncertain, the uncertainties into account is the second class of methods - real options approach. This method is an extension of financial options thinking in the field of physical investment, the investment decision-making method is more scientific. However, the disadvantage of this approach is to assume that the investor has a monopoly, in most cases, this is a contradiction with reality, most of the investment projects inevitable competition. Competitive factors are taken into account, on the birth of a third type of investment decision-making methods - option game method. This method is a combination of options theory and game theory is the latest investment decision analysis methods. First, this paper summarizes some of the basic situation of tourism investment projects made some description of the problem and risk the uncertainty of these issues and determine the risk of investment in tourism projects, the presence of other investors and competition factors must be taken into account. These are decision analysis factors must be taken into account. Next chronologically tells the story of the three theories associated with the option game, based on these three theories, to which option game theory as the core, a conversion option in the nature of tourism investment projects Decision Analysis The goal is to identify the investors' optimal entry strategy, and provide guidance for the specific practices.

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