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Research on Forecasting System of Classified Load of Power Energy Consumption

Author: XiongLei
Tutor: YanWei;TanGang
School: Chongqing University
Course: Software Engineering
Keywords: Load forecasting BP neural network Matlab Electricity sales
CLC: TP319
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2007
Downloads: 80
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Abstract


Load forecasting power system scheduling, management of electricity , plans and planning departments . Load changes by a variety of factors in the socio-economic , policy , weather and people's lives and production , with the notable features of the time , the region , the development and changes in the classification differences . How effective high-quality load forecasting has been to focus on the content of the electricity production sector as well as academics . The existing research is mainly concentrated in the region integrated load forecasting , the lack of classification load forecasting . This not only affects the accuracy of load forecasting , but also affect the effective management of the electricity sector classification load . Papers combined company City Power Supply Bureau , Chongqing Electric Power actual subject \models and methods , and the initial development of the software system . Obviously, the thesis has important theoretical and engineering application value . The main research results are as follows : The paper introduces the basic principle of BP neural network classification load forecasting method , a detailed analysis of the characteristics of a variety of factors such as weather , time , economic and load mutation classification load changes , the abnormal data preprocessing methods , as well as temperature data fuzzification way , laid the foundation for the reasonable establishment of the classification samples of neural network model for load forecasting . Firstly, according to the tariff , electricity , nature and monthly electricity sales data sources of different the Chongqing City Power Supply Bureau loads divided into nine categories . Then take full account of the specific characteristics of each load by mutations in the amount of time , weather and load impact to create a neural network prediction model . Finally , through a variety of combinations of sample input and simulation comparison analysis to determine the appropriate classification of load neural network prediction sample model . Matlab-based environment , the the paper initial development of the city power supply bureau classification load electricity sales forecasting software . The software can basically meet the needs of user queries on the the classification load monthly electricity sales data entry and the neural network prediction results .

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