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Research on the Belief Map Based Multi-criteria Method of Weapon System and Stability Analysis

Author: ShenPengGao
Tutor: ZhuYiFan
School: National University of Defense Science and Technology
Course: Systems Engineering
Keywords: combat effectiveness information fusion belief map information entropy Monte Carlo method sensitivity analysis
CLC: TP391.9
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2007
Downloads: 54
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Abstract


At the stage of the weapon systems demonstration, the data of evaluation mainly comes from expert experience and simulation results. But in practical application, these data can not be used directly to evaluate the weapon systems because of the great difference between these two kinds of data. And therefore, in this paper a method based on group decision and simulation to evaluate the ability of weapon equipment is presented. Group decision is framework of this method, and we use belief map to obtain the data which is used for evaluating, by using belief map expert opinions and simulation results are presented in the same form. then a Bayesian method is used to fusion the different data of evaluation and get the evaluation scores. Finally, sensitivity analysis of the results has been done. More specifically, the major innovation of the paper work can be summarized as the following three aspects:(1) Simulation data expressed by the belief map and simulation data identificationSimulation data is made up of many times of simulation. After obtaining original data, we need to transform the data form then get the basis criterion. It is important to consider the uncertainties of simulation data when it is mapping onto belief map. this paper use information entropy method to calculation the uncertainties of simulation data to support integrated assessment and sensitivity analysis.(2) Experts and simulation data integrationThe simulation data is mapped onto belief map, so that the experts and simulation data with the same form of the data. After this ,both expert and simulation could support combat effectiveness evaluation, by using Bayesian fusion we could get basic criterion.(3) The sensitivity analysisBy assuming the expert data and simulation data Obey Beta distribution, we use Monte Carlo method analyses influence which is brought by the uncertainties of original data to the result.

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CLC: > Industrial Technology > Automation technology,computer technology > Computing technology,computer technology > Computer applications > Information processing (information processing) > Computer simulation
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