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Interest rate parity theory study on the applicability of Chinese

Author: XueHongLi
Tutor: JingGuiLan
School: The Central Party School
Course: Political Economics
Keywords: Applicability of China Interest rate parity theory Self-balancing mechanism Interest rate parity theory System coefficient of friction International capital flows Exchange rate forecast Mathematical formulation Transaction costs Forward foreign exchange market
CLC: F830
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2000
Downloads: 281
Quote: 1
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Abstract


In the full and effective financial market conditions, interest rates , exchange rates and international capital flows relations among the three mechanisms is a self- balancing mechanism , and the interest rate parity theory is this the perfect embodiment of self-balancing mechanism . For China, due to interest rate , foreign exchange controls and market imperfections ( complete sense of the forward foreign exchange market does not exist ) , this self- balancing mechanism is virtually impossible to exist, is a lack of coordination between the three relationships . However, with the advance of China's financial liberalization , this self-balancing mechanism will be gradually established in China . Based on the interest rate parity theory of the historical investigation and mathematical deduction of transaction costs and the introduction of the system based on the coefficient of friction , trying to export for China 's interest rate parity formula , the formula used to the evolution of self-balancing mechanism for the gradual establishment of the process give statements. And in the analysis of the role of interest rate parity processes and Chinese institutional environment , based on the interest rates , exchange rates, lack of coordination among international capital flows has made a theoretical analysis of the relationship , the recent rise of RMB exchange rate ( devaluation ) value of the pressure to be forecasts. This paper is divided into six parts. Preface is the article introduction, this paper gives a definition of the concepts involved and articles assumptions ; first chapter is the interest rate parity theory History. Interest rate parity theory' dissertation">Interest rate parity theory provides an overview of the evolution of three phases , and that its shortcomings ; second chapter is the interest rate parity theory of mathematical statements. In the mathematical formulation , based on the introduction of the concept of transaction costs , and its detailed arguments put forward : the introduction of transaction costs, interest rate parity line from one and turned it into two . The third chapter is the interest rate parity formula Applicability of China . Western countries and China on the basis of empirical analysis is proposed : the reason why the interest rate parity formula applies to the West while China does not apply, because the Chinese presence system coefficient of friction. Through the investigation and analysis of friction coefficient system that applies to China 's interest rate parity formula will appear three evolutionary stages . The fourth chapter is the interest rate parity theory and exchange rate forecasts. In this chapter, the current interest rate - exchange rate forecast for the lead in the conflict analysis , analysis of the role of interest rate parity theory procedures and the role of the institutional environment in China , pointed out: self-balancing mechanism is unlikely to exist in China , in order to balance the need to adjust the official . And on this basis, the RMB against China 's rise ( depreciated ) value of the pressure to make a prediction . Closing section on the paper to do a summary , and propose solutions to the relationship between the three uncoordinated measures short-term measures and long-term .

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