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Short-term load forecasting based on artificial neural networks and fuzzy reasoning strategy

Author: MaWenXiao
Tutor: BaiXiaoMin；ZuoLianShun
School: China Electric Power Research Institute
Course: Proceedings of the
Keywords: Short-term load forecasting Artificial Neural Networks Fuzzy reasoning assembly technology Common Information Model Component interface specification
CLC: TM714
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2002
Downloads: 325
Quote: 5
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Abstract


Power system short-term load forecasting to predict the load on the coming days to 1 week. Short-term load forecasting has become one of the essential functions in the EMS (Energy Management System). Short-term load forecasting technology after decades of development, many prediction methods, such as time-series method, the state space method, artificial neural network method, etc. However, these methods can not accurately describe the power load model. Large amounts of data statistics show that the load normalized according to the formula Ln = (LL min ) / (L max -L min ), similar curve similar to the load change of the type of day while different types of day load curve varies greatly, then load forecasting can be divided into two parts: load normalized minimum value of a coefficient prediction of daily load and maximum daily load forecast. Based on this, the paper presents a prediction method based on artificial neural networks and fuzzy reasoning strategy. First, based on actual experience by type of load date for Monday, weekday, Saturday, Sunday and holidays are five types; establish the artificial neural network model to predict the load normalization coefficient and then depending on the type of day; Last fuzzy reasoning strategy predict the daily maximum load and the daily minimum load. Practical examples show that the proposed method can improve the accuracy of short-term load forecasting. The short-term load forecasting software used to implement the function of the power system short-term load forecasting, an essential part of the energy management system (EMS) and power market trading system. The rapid development of information technology and power system various information systems to establish new requirements for short-term load forecasting software: 1. Can be effective with the type of EMS system to be easily integrated. With the complexity of the system, considered from the efficiency and economy on short-term load forecasting software should be able to be effective with the EMS system, easily integrated; 2. Able to achieve Web-based Distributed predictive. The rise of the Internet to make information exchange to break through the limitations of time and space, through Web access to information has become an essential tool for the short-term load forecasting software should be able to achieve on the Internet. In short, the new generation of short-term load forecasting software should be open and distributed. Component technology is a new approach to software design and development, software engineering, another major revolution following the object-oriented technology. Software component technology for the design and development process, the different parts of the software can be designed to communicate only through the interface between the different components, component, as long as the interface remains unchanged, the changes do not affect any of the internal components of Other component variations. To be able to quickly achieve the effective integration of the type of EMS system, the United States EPRI set EMS system application program interface specification (CCAPI), IEC has been adopted as the IEC-61970 standard. IEC 61970 standard defines the Common Information Model (CIM) of the power system, the component interface specification (CIS), Public Data Access (CDAF) and the Resource Definition Framework (RDF). In this paper, component technology and the IEC 61970 standard design and development of a new generation of short-term load forecasting software. Firstly, from the function will be short-term load forecasting software is divided into three parts: the completely different part of human-computer interaction, the core algorithm portion and a data interface part. Human-computer interaction is achieved through a browser; core algorithm is designed as the core algorithm components; data interface is designed to the data interface components. Designed to meet the CIS by the CIM / XML to exchange data between the different components, the component interface specification. Finally, this article uses Microsoft's COM / DCOM technology for the development and implementation of software.

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CLC: > Industrial Technology > Electrotechnical > Transmission and distribution engineering, power network and power system > Theory and Analysis > Load analysis
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