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The Study on Real Estate Investment Risk Evaluation Methods Involving Risky Return Rate

Author: YuZuoWu
Tutor: WangHongBing
School: Wuhan University of Technology
Course: Structural Engineering
Keywords: Risk investment yields Net Present Value Capital Asset Pricing Model Economic Value Added
CLC: F293.3
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2005
Downloads: 684
Quote: 2
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Abstract


The risk of a variety of meanings, different people have different points of view. It is said that the word \Word of the alleged risk comes from the language of the Spanish sailors, which means \Risk the probability of occurrence is defined as the measure of all the risks of an activity, exposure to harmful levels of scale. Risk (defined by Edwards and Bonn given in 2000) implies a desired result (loss) appear - it means that adverse events occur in a the advance given time within the possibility (probability) . The greater the risk of the activity, if the decision is wrong, then the greater the loss of the final results, and vice versa. The risk can not be completely avoided, but the risk is minimized rational choice. This article focuses on the research-based the risk yield real estate investment risk evaluation method. There are many uncertainties in real estate projects, their characteristics and the diversity of resources and activities. There are many risks that could lead to serious consequences, real estate investment because real estate is a long investment cycle, the amount of investment, and the characteristics of complex investment location fixed investment risk. From the inherent uncertainties in the risk of being called a non-system risk, including operations management, financial and technical risks; risks caused by external uncertainty that systemic risk, including the social, natural and political risks. Risk occurrence probability and extent of the damage is difficult to estimate, the greater the investment scale and complexity, the longer the period, the greater the risk. From the context that the investment owners can not predict the probability of occurrence of risk, but the level of income distribution can reflect the risk profile. Real estate investment, development, design, construction and sale of a number of interdependent activities, each link contains the corresponding costs (a cost or revenue) and working hours. The risk assessment is the analysis and evaluation of project investment feasibility under various system and non-system risk factors, to enable investors to make decisions. Firstly, based on internal and external risks of real estate investment projects, but also introduces several common the uncertain risk evaluation methods, such as breakeven method, sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo simulation method. Followed by the traditional real estate investment risk evaluation method does not consider the risk, it is difficult to adapt to the increasingly fierce market competition, the article in the capital asset pricing model - coefficient of \a risk model based on the introduction of a risk coefficient of variation and Beta Fixed benchmark rate of return, net present value formula proposed to consider the risk-benefit ratio evaluation method. Again on the basis of analysis of the model assumptions, the article discusses the improved method of arbitrage pricing theory, option theory model. Finally, and the capital asset pricing model, the added economic value (including the concept mechanism, incentive system, management system and evaluation) method is applied to the evaluation of real estate investment risk.

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CLC: > Economic > Economic planning and management > Urban and municipal economy > Urban Economics and Management > The real estate economy
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