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Local general budget revenue forecast model

Author: LvNing
Tutor: MaQingGuo
School: Zhejiang University
Course: Management Science and Engineering
Keywords: Local financial General budget revenue forecast model SVM Ridge Regression Combination Forecasting
CLC: F224
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2006
Downloads: 779
Quote: 3
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Abstract


Local fiscal revenue is an important part of state revenue , but also local governments at all levels to exercise their financial functions important guarantee for the establishment of a scientific and reasonable local financial revenue forecasting model to improve forecast accuracy and develop fiscal spending plan for government budgeting provide more favorable data support , is an important task of the local government . Construction of China 's local governments uneven level of local financial revenue forecasting model ; nor shared due to the limitations of the industrial structure and level of economic development , local government revenue forecasting model ; Zhejiang Province in fiscal revenue forecasting model the research less research , more research gaps . This thesis focuses on the composition of the contents and structural characteristics of the local fiscal revenue , fully consider the impact of economic decisions, financial and other factors on the revenue the premise , in accordance with the principle of combining qualitative and quantitative analysis , the use of traditional methods of time series , multiple regression method as well as the general budget revenue , as well as one of the main taxes based the learning theory SVM method to establish the single forecast model , and finally introduced the combination forecasting method to effectively combine the three methods in support of the actual data of Zhejiang Province to establish the more complete local general budget revenue forecast model predicted Zhejiang Province, \The main contribution of this study is that a combination of qualitative and quantitative empirical methods to establish a local financial revenue forecasting model , made ??an important attempt in local financial revenue forecasting model , and get some experience and results for Zhejiang Province as well as in each of the other local government revenue forecasts model has certain reference value . Through comparative analysis , model building prediction method conclusion that compared to the complexity of the prediction model , the simple exponential smoothing model cost is small and the performance is not significantly lower than the complex prediction model ; regression model performance is stable , can effectively compensate for the exponential model is not sensitive to defects on the structural change ; unstable performance of the time series structure , the introduction of a variety of prediction methods can effectively utilize a variety of information and reduce the model prediction error .

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CLC: > Economic > Economic planning and management > Economic calculation, economic and mathematical methods > Economic and mathematical methods
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