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Artificial Stock Market-based Research on Investment Returns with Small Type Models

Author: ZhangLiYuan
Tutor: ZhangWei
School: Tianjin University
Course: Management Science and Engineering
Keywords: Artificial Stock Market ACF Market Microstructure Small Type Models Fundamental Analysis
CLC: F832.51
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2010
Downloads: 66
Quote: 0
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Abstract


Competition in the financial markets followed the same biosphere as "survival of the fittest" law of survival. Similarly, stock market participants, even though use mathematical models to predict the value of shares or price movements, not like a completely rational maximize their own interests under the decision-making as it is because everyone have very strong subjectivity, which ultimately led to their decision-making phase often make choices different from each other. However, the proceeds of wealth in the competition, winning one of the market participants have to use a more appropriate decision-making or investment strategy.Currently, research on investment strategies with Computational Experiment Finance are mainly focused on the impact of investor behavior on asset prices and market characteristics, while research on the investors returns under different investment strategies is less. In the real stock market, to track the flow of wealth between investors is difficult. But through the simulation system, we can roughly simulate the wealth growth process of different investors, and also we can have a more intuitive understanding of the wealth mobility between different investors.This paper develops an artificial stock market based on small type models, investors from the rational fundamental analysis and a simple form of random traders. The simulation results: Firstly, on the fundamentals of market share accounted for respectively 10%, 20%, 30% of the market situation, to test the Market Characteristics; Secondly, to compare the average wealth level under the different ratios of two class of investors and to compare the average wealth level of fundamental analysis under three ratios. Finally, under the same proportion, to analyze the causes of wealth differences between the same type of heterogeneous fundamental analysis.The analysis concluded that: 1, in the rational fundamental analysis accounted for the proportion of the market in different circumstances, the rational analysis of fundamentals than the average wealth of those simple random average wealth of traders. 2, rational analysis of fundamentals in the market, the smaller the proportion, they would get the higher average wealth. 3, fundamental analysis in the rational market share accounted for three different cases, the same fundamentals of heterogeneous rational difference between the wealth is due to their own judgments level on the market. That traders although have the same information on asset value, but may also explain the differences in the causes that determined the value of assets.

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CLC: > Economic > Fiscal, monetary > Finance, banking > China's financial,banking > Financial market
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