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Research on Financial Risk Early Warning System of Chinese Real Estate Industry

Author: ZhouXing
Tutor: ZhengShuangZuo
School: Central South University for Nationalities
Course: Business management
Keywords: real estate market financial risks warning system
CLC: F832.4
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2010
Downloads: 241
Quote: 0
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Abstract


In recent years, the real estate industry as the pillar industry of national economy has achieved rapid development, real estate finance occupies a decisive position in developing real estate industry. But, this rapid development depends excessively on the real estate finance; makes real estate finance face great risk. Once the financial risk of real estate exposing, the real estate industry may suffer severe blow, and it seriously affects banking, steel industry, cement industry and construction industry which closely linked real estate. However, risk prevention system has not yet formed for real estate financial risk; in particular, construction of financial risk early warning system on real estate is a lack of systematic theoretical and empirical research.In this paper, the early warning system of real estate financial risk had been designed and constructed though by the general method and principle of risk early warning systems. First of all, it systematically identified the internal factors and external factors of real estate financial risks based on the whole process of real estate development, tried out warning indexes of real estate financial risk according to the principles of index establishment. Then it choose neural network method as warning method on the basis of the characteristics of estate market and limitations of information accession on the building of warning systems, described the construction process and operational mechanism of the system, to complete the preliminary designation.Finally, the paper constructed data matrix of the warning indexes by the last 7 years running data of Wuhan City real estate market, set up Wuhan real estate financial risk warning system according to early warning systems have been designed, to divided the warning area by using 3δmethod, to determine the weight of the early warning indicators by using principal component analysis, to complete index prediction by using neural network mode, to realize comprehensive early warning to the whole Wuhan real estate financial risk by setting up an integrated early warning index, and put related forward countermeasures to prevent risks based on the results of the warning system.At the end, the paper analyzed the warning results, prospected the application of the warning model, and pointed out the shortcoming of warning system for continuing study to related researchers.

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CLC: > Economic > Fiscal, monetary > Finance, banking > China's financial,banking > Credit
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