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Empirical Research on Determinants Influencing China’s International Investment Position

Author: WuLiang
Tutor: YangLiuYong
School: Zhejiang University
Course: International Trade
Keywords: International Investment Position Unit Root Test Co-integration Test Model
CLC: F832.6
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2010
Downloads: 87
Quote: 0
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Abstract


From the 20th century 80’s to the end of 2009, China’s International Investment Position continues to grow. As of the end of 2009, China’s Asset International Investment Positions reached to 3.46 trillion U.S. dollars, China’s Liability International Investment Position reached to 1.63 trillion U.S. dollars, China’s Net International Investment Position reached to 1.82 trillion U.S. dollars. Research on China’s International Investment Position plays a vital role in terms of theoretical and practical significance. Through estimating related data in International Investment Position Table, using Granger Test, Unit Root Test, Co-integration Test and establishing Multiple Linear Regression Model and Error Correction Model, this article discussed factors that influencing China’s International Investment Position deeply.The first part of this article was about literatures that related to this theme. And based on these useful literatures, the writer listed the framework, innovation points, theoretical and practical significance of this article. According to the relevant formulas and relevant data on International Balance of Payments, the writer estimated and calculated the numbers in International Investment Position Table in second part of this article.The content of third part was the related variables’ Unit Root Test and Co-integration Test. And the results showed that China’s Net International Investment Position, China’s Asset International Investment Position, China’s Liability International Investment Position, Economy of Scale, Trade Openness and other variables were the two orders integratedness, which was satisfied with prerequisite for Co-integration Test. Furthermore, three regression residuals were stationary time series in Co-integration Test, indicating that there was a co-integration relationship between the selected variables.Based on the establishment of time series model and error correction model, the writer analyzed the changes in China’s International Investment Position and the factors that influencing the IIP in forth part of this article. On this basis, the factors that influencing China’s IIP concluded Economy of Scale (GDP), Trade Openness (total imports and exports/GDP), Degree of Development of Financial Markets and so on. And if China’s Net International Investment Position, China’s Asset International Investment Position and China’s Liability International Investment Position deviate from the long-run equilibrium in a period, there will be a feedback mechanism which could help IIP back to equilibrium from non-equilibrium.Finally, through what’s found above the writer listed some constructive proposals to policy makers, including the reasonable control of China’s foreign exchange reserves in Asset International Investment Position, speeding up financial reform and innovation to guide the rational flow of financial resources, the improvement of legal system, strengthening the strict supervision, etc., as well as the inadequacies of the article and follow-up study.

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CLC: > Economic > Fiscal, monetary > Finance, banking > China's financial,banking > Exchange rate,foreign financial relations
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