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An Empirical Study on Exchange Rate Risk of the Central Region

Author: LiXiaoNa
Tutor: ZuoXiaoFei
School: Henan University of Science and Technology
Course: Regional Economics
Keywords: RMB exchange rate exchange rate risks the central region the eastern region the exchange rate risk prevention
CLC: F752.6
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2009
Downloads: 127
Quote: 0
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Abstract


Since the exchange rate reform, RMB rate are continue to rise, many Chinese enterprises bear the exchange rate risk directly or indirectly. With economic development, the opening degree and dependence on the foreign trade are growing in central region, the central enterprises are also increasingly deeply involved in the international market. Foreign trade enterprises in the central region are lack of experience in international competition and irrational product structure, not high-tech in the international market, which are already in a weak position, but now we still have to face many problems arising from exchange rate fluctuations. So study exchange rate risks in central area businesses and how to avoid exchange rate risks, it has become major issue in the academia and the business community. This paper is main in the empirical research and also will be an attempt to get an stimulating solution.This paper stars from the current economic and trade development analysis in central region, in summarizing the ideas from the current exchange rate risk at home and abroad and its prevention from related fields, which put forward the reference frame in the relatively developed eastern region and look for the gap on the basis of contrast, then we will explore countermeasures in research way and method.Then, this paper make the Jorion exchange rate risk model as an empirical model to study, the central area as the research object and eastern region as the reference frame. It selected 45 listed companies in certain foreign trade as samples, and according to the model need to sort out a comprehensive exchange rate fluctuations monthly and return on market , stock price volatility and other relevant indicators between June 2006 to June 2008, using SPSS statistical software for analysis. Thus we can conclude that RMB exchange rate fluctuations has certain influence on business enterprise value of the central region, especially the central region of the exchange rate risk fact is 5 times than eastern region in the economic opening-degree view of statistical results after amending! Conclusions basing on empirical analysis and combining with the macroµ-finance environmental analysis and current foreign exchange risk management problem analysis at central region. This paper presents the central area businesses need to enhance risk prevention awareness, the introduction of a large number of professional and technical personnel, improve the abiliy of application of tools to avoid exchange rate risks. The macro level required to stabilize the RMB appreciation expectations, and encourage the RMB clearing business in the central regions as the pilot. Meanwhile, we should learn the experience of the exchange rate risk management from the eastern region and as a warning to guide the foreign trade enterprises at central area, which make central area enterprises to avoid detours in international competition.

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CLC: > Economic > Trade and Economic > States foreign trade > China's foreign trade > Import and Export Trade Overview
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