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Background: The significance of breast-conserving surgery (BCS) is based upon the cosmetic effect to the best advantage on the premise of a radical cure. Because the local recurrence following BCS is the most chief obstacle, the qualification of locally control is to excise enough breast tissue around the tumor. But the more tissue is removed, the more apparent distortion takes place. The reasonable measure to cope with the conflict is to set up an individually pattern in the treatment by the indication depending on the prognosticate for Local recurrence. Now, I attempt to establish a Logistic Model to predict the probability of local recurrence just like what some doctors were going to do.Objective: The aim of this study is to seek an objective criterion evaluating fatalness of local recurrence on Brest cancer. With the criterion, the cases with extensive infiltration of tumour will be found out, and the probability of local recurrence following breast-conserving surgery will be anticipated. So we can adapt especially individual range of excision, not only improving radical cure, but also optimizing the mammary cosmetic result.Method: Retrospective study 458 cases following modified radical mastectomy during April 1998 to May 2006 and 57 cases following BCS in my hospital provided datum. After many literatures and monographies about local recurrence on Brest cancer were consulted, besides, summed immediate experiences up in such seven years clinical practice, a series of available prognostic factors of local recurrence were analysed. There are age, menstrual condition, tumor position, size of tumour, the shortest distance from skin to tumour, pathological type, tissular grade, the glandular density , the degree of tumorous necrosis, the state of stroma-lymphocyte, lymph-metastasis, range-pattern of tumour,
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