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The Research & Development of District Macroeconomy Intelligent Information Systems

Author: FengZhiHeng
Tutor: ShiWeiRen;LiangShan
School: Chongqing University
Course: Systems Engineering
Keywords: District Macroeconomy Forecast Intelligent Information System Grey Model Linear Regression Prediction Microsimulation Model
CLC: TP319
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2006
Downloads: 95
Quote: 1
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Abstract


Economy decision-making is government information core content ,the target of district macroeconomy information management forecast and warning system is grasped the trend of economy development, forecast the latency problem of economydevelopment,assistant economy decision-making provide foundation support, enhance government’s economy decision-making level.At present,our country has established macro-economy forecast and warning system around the countrywide,the city of chongqing has established the center of economic information. a mass of research in macro-economy forecast and warning have been done, and obtained abundance production.This dissertation regards methodology of the complicated system as guidelines, researches on the macroeconomy information management forecast and warning system with qualitative and quantitative analysis. In this dissertation, proceeding from the angles of the model and index, the main macroeconomy index and macroeconomy trend predicting based on grey model and regression model, and a microsimulation model of the economy are studied.The framework and research fruits are listed as follows:①The dissertation begins with a overview of district macroeconomy information management forecast and warning system. Current situation of theoretic research and application is reviewed. At the same time, the objective and scheme are proposed based on this.②Select and weave correctly index system. Evaluate accurately the macroeconomy situation, and forecast exactly macroeconomy development in future. Reflect the effect ofmacro-economics cortrol and adjust in good time. Choose mostly predict index, establish the predict index system.③District macroeconomy forecast has some behavior characters, such as non-linear and insufficient data. After analysing and comparing several kinds of predicting algorithms, we predict the main macroeconomy index by grey model and regress model. According to seek the change rules through the arrangement of initial data, we can analyse the current situation of local economy, and offer the corresponding statistics data for decision-making.④The characteristic, structure form and modeling method of the macro-economy

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