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The Study on the Early Warning System of Jiangxi Grain Yield

Author: ZhangYuFei
Tutor: XiQin
School: East China Jiaotong University
Course: Statistics
Keywords: grain yield early warning system gray pre-measurement ARIMA countermeasure
CLC: F326.11
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2005
Downloads: 278
Quote: 1
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Abstract


The grain yield is a strategic question which relates the national economy and the people’s live because of 13 hundred million population in China. Jiangxi Province is a agricultural province, its grain yield not only relates its own society safety and stability, but also affects peripheral province and even the national stability. But in recent years its grain yield has a dropping tendency. Strengthening the research of the grain warning system is especially important.This article uses economical cyclical theory and the agricultural cycle theory, analyzes the early warning system of the Jiangxi grain yield from 7 aspects.Part Ⅰ proposes the significance of study on the article, analyzes the grain correlation content of early warning system and its problems, demonstrates the research mentality, method and creation of this article.Part Ⅱ analyzes domestic and foreign related economical cyclical theory and the agricultural cycle theory and so on .It is the foundation to establish the early warning system of Jiangxi grain yield.Part Ⅲ begins from the Jiangxi Province grain yield development history, analyzes how its characteristic as well as the correlation economic agent, the grain structure factor, the natural condition factor and so on influence grain yield.Part Ⅳ establishes the early warning model through single target early warning model and the multi-target early warning model.Part Ⅴ establishes grain yield forecast model from multi- angles and forecasts future 3 year grain yield. Compared with the related model in forecast fit and unfit quality, decides the safety condition in which the present Jiangxi grain yield locates.Part Ⅵ gives some suggestions to promote grain yield accounting to the conclusion of Part Ⅲ,Part Ⅳ and Part Ⅴ.Part Ⅶ inducts the work, summaries creations and proposes the deficiency of this article.Accounting to this article, we discover that Jiangxi grain yield has close relation with its developing process, social history condition and so on. This conclusion overcomes the theory flaw that the grain yield is just affected by the natural condition, the polity, the price of grain and so on which are unilateral or several aspects. This solves the grain security problem of the Jiangxi Province government by providing the new reference

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CLC: > Economic > Agricultural economy > China 's agricultural economy > Agricultural sector economy > Farming > Food crops
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