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Research of Accident Forecasting Based on Artificial Neural Network

Author: ZhangZhiXin
Tutor: YuShuRong
School: Lanzhou University of Technology
Course: Safety Technology and Engineering
Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks Accident Prediction Time Series MATLAB
CLC: X928.03
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2007
Downloads: 408
Quote: 3
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Abstract


Safe production is a huge system engineering , security, scientific research is one of the important part of this huge system engineering . In recent years , all kinds of major accidents occur frequently , had a significant negative impact on the economic development of China . The accident caused serious injury or death consequences also had a significant impact on safety in China . Therefore , scientific research the various casualties trend in production in China will provide a reference for the safe production of our country to develop a reasonable solution measures . The artificial neural network technology with powerful nonlinear mapping ability and self-organization , adaptive , self-learning capability , especially applicable to solve the complex causal relationship between non-deterministic reasoning , judgment , prediction and classification problems . The time series prediction , from analyzing time series variation information to select appropriate models and parameters , to establish the prediction model , and according to the principle of inertia , it is assumed to predict object past trends will continue into the future , in order to make forecast. This paper artificial neural network and time series forecasting , establishing , training and simulation prediction model based on BP networks and time series theory . This article briefly describes the research profile of the domestic and international accident prediction model , at the same time introduced the basic principle of artificial neural network , BP network structure , learning algorithm , the network model and MATLAB neural network toolbox software . Analysis and comparison of several predictive models , and then discuss in detail the time series forecasting model based on BP network . Accident mortality rate of the country's industrial enterprises in 1974-2003 , to the establishment of training and simulation time series prediction based on BP network model . The simulation results are compared with traditional regression neural network prediction more accurate results than the predicted results of the regression can be seen , and then explain the prediction model of the establishment of the ideal predictive ability . Second, the prediction of China from 1981 to 2002 in all types of coal mine accidents deaths validated prediction model established in the prediction of effective multi-input pieces .

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CLC: > Environmental science, safety science > Safety Science > Safety management (labor protection and management ) > Accident investigation and analysis ( work-related injuries and prevention ) > General issues > Accident prevention and prediction
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