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South China (Guangdong, Guangxi, Fujian) 224 sites from 1951 to 2006 meteorological data and the Order of the Disaster in the history of disaster information, station by station inversion every year the annual chilling injury and chilling injury in the process of cooling rate, the lowest temperature, duration days actively cold and other hazards value. Through comparative analysis to build under a different hazard bearing body of chilling injury climate hazards and climate change background climate indicators in order to establish the climate risk estimation model and integrated climate risk zoning exponential model, the preparation of the South China banana, litchi, longan , tomatoes, pepper chilling injury climate risk zoning map. The main conclusions obtained are as follows: 1, using the cold disaster for research scale build integrated climate-based the cold disaster of chilling injury hazard can be a very good identification chilling injury occurred. Factor of 2 for the number of days ≥ 3 days of cold disaster money can well reflect the annual chilling injury, which provide the basis to prepare for the dynamic assessment of chilling injury. 3 built daily minimum temperature scale based on the process of chilling injury ≤ TC duration days ≥ 3 days of cold disaster the plot cold and, to identify the factor with the least chilling injury, more conducive to practical application. 4, the study found that climate warming may make hazard bearing body cold reduced hazards increased risk of chilling injury. To this end, the relative area of ??cold values ??to construct chilling injury integrated climate risk factors. The analysis found that the relative area of ??cold chilling injury and non-chilling injury-year Year values ??in the case generally with good results. 5, the analysis found, banana, litchi, longan cultivation of the northern boundary of basic and harmful product cold and the multi-year average of 5 ° C · d contour match, tomatoes, peppers planting the northern boundary of basic hazardous product cold and the multi-year average of 90 ° C · The d isogram match. 6, the preparation of banana, litchi, longan, tomato the (sub seedlings, flowers and fruits of), pepper (seedling, flowers and fruits of period) chilling injury level (I - IV class) risk probability geographical distribution (28) and chilling injury climate risk map (7). The results show that: In addition to the Southern suitable planting areas, the main northerly advantage area include: Baise in Guangxi Guiping; Guangdong Qingyuan, emerging; Zhangzhou, Fujian, Kamata in some areas, compared with other regions of the same latitude, significantly lower risk of these areas, suitable for the development of fruit and vegetable production. Cold disaster scale build banana, litchi, longan, tomatoes (seedling, flowers and fruits), pepper (seedling, flowers and fruits) chilling injury integrated climate risk to quantify the risk of chilling injury information to address the risk of comparability for the agricultural production sector to develop appropriate disaster prevention and mitigation policies, decisions and actions provide a scientific basis.
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