Dissertation > Excellent graduate degree dissertation topics show

Fuzzy multi- criteria decision making method based on prospect theory

Author: XuZuo
Tutor: HuJunHua
School: Central South University
Course: Management Science and Engineering
Keywords: prospect theory multi-criteria fuzzy decision making interval number intuitionistic fuzzy number
CLC: C931.1
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2010
Downloads: 118
Quote: 0
Read: Download Dissertation

Abstract


Decision-making is a basic human activity, which is widely used in economic, management and other areas. In real life, because of vagueness and uncertainty of the external world, the complexity of decision problems, and the limitation of the decision-makers’level of personal knowledge, we often can’t get the value of some alternatives accurately and can only acquire the approximate range of values or the degree of satisfiability and the non-satisfiability of each alternative with respect to a set of the criteria. Therefore, this study is of great theoretical and practical significance whose criteria values are interval numbers or intuitionistic fuzzy numbers based on prospect theory. On the basis of the existing methods and prospect theory, we investigate interval and intuitionistic fuzzy multiple criteria decision making problems based on prospect theory. The effectiveness of the developed approaches are verified by empirical method. The mail work and achievements are as follows:(1)With respect to decision making problems whose criteria values are interval numbers, we propose a fuzzy multi-criteria decision making method. This method firstly regardes the criteria value as N arithmetic random numbers in the given interval, and the regularities of criteria value distribution for the interval is expressed by the normal distribution function. On the basis of the given reference points of every criteria, use value function and decision weight function to calculate the prospect value of criteria, and then calculate the whole prospect value of every alternative. At last, sort all the alternatives and choose the best one. Use a simple illustrative example to demonstrate the feasibility of the fuzzy multi-criteria decision making method.(2)With respect to decision making problems whose criteria values are intuitionistic fuzzy numbers and the criteria weight is completely unknown, we propose a fuzzy multi-criteria decision making method. Firstly, by the intuitionistic fuzzy entropy, it can get the information entropy of each criterion and calculate the criteria weight. Secondly, determine the positive and negative ideal solution, gains and losses results set according to score function and accuracy function. Thirdly, define the prospect value function with intuitionistic fuzzy numbers by using score function. By combining weighting function of prospect theory, we establish a fuzzy multi-criteria decision making model based on prospect theory and intuitionistic fuzzy number, and then calculate the prospect value of every alternative. At last, sort all the alternatives and choose the best one. Use a simple illustrative example to demonstrate the feasibility of the fuzzy multi-criteria decision making method.(3)Multi-criteria decision making methods proposed in chapters III and IV are applied to stock investment research, in which individual investors determine the investment value in the stock market. Through the research literature, three indicators are selected to evaluate the investment value of the stock. Then we develop questionaire ourselves and collect forcast data that investors predict stock movements of eight representative stocks in the coming six months. We obtain investment value and order of the eight stocks according to the multi-criteria decision making mathod based on prospect theory. At the same time, we compare the order of the individual stock investors willingness to invest eight stocks with the order of the prospect value. Through analysis, the effectiveness of multi-criteria decision making method is validated.

Related Dissertations

  1. The Empirical Test of the Capital Asset Pricing Model Based on Habit-formation in China,F832.5
  2. A Study of Prospect-Theory-Embedded Dynamic Risk Aversion Hedge Ratio Model,F426.32;F224
  3. Studies of Slope Stability Evaluation Based on the Uncertain Analytic Hierarchy Process,TD854.6
  4. The Analysis of Life Insurance Consumption Behavior in China,F842.6
  5. The Design on Trust and Decision-making Mechanism of Supply Chain Enterprise Collaboration Which Based on Process,F274
  6. Study on the Investors’ Irrational Behaviors in Securities Market,F830.91
  7. A Route Choice Model Study Based on Prospect Theory under the Policy of Congestion Charging,U491
  8. Research of Parking Choice Behavior Based on Prospect Theory,U491.7
  9. The Influence of Framing Effects on the Trade-off between Loss Aversion and Inequity Aversion in the Ultimatum Game,B849
  10. Knowledge Acquisition of Interval-valued Information Systems Based on Dual-parameters,TP311.13
  11. Prospect Theory in Chinese warrants market validation and application,F224
  12. Research on Chinese Listed Companies’ Financing Decision from the View of Behavior Finance Application,F832.51;F224.32
  13. The Research on the High Returns of IPO in China,F832.51
  14. Investors’ Judgment and Decision Making in Chinese Stock Market,F832.51
  15. China's tax compliance issues,F812.42
  16. Behavior of the Operators in State-Owned Listed Companies and Capital Structure,F276.6
  17. Behavioral Economics for Entrepreneurs Behavior,F270
  18. Research on Choosing C2C Express Enterprises Based on Service’s Satisfaction Degree,F724.6;F252
  19. Consider the decision-makers decision - making preferences, psychological expected order problems,F274
  20. Based on the value of the stock of the prospect theory Evaluation,F830.91

CLC: > Social Sciences > Management > Management techniques and methods > Management Mathematics
© 2012 www.DissertationTopic.Net  Mobile